Civil Contract's commanding 93.5% implied probability in the Armenia parliamentary election winner market reflects trader consensus on recent polls showing the incumbent party's stable 30-33% vote intention lead—such as EVN Report's April-May survey at 32.5% versus Strong Armenia's 10.1%—bolstered by Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's rising 49% approval amid improving public views on security and economy. Fragmentation among opposition alliances like Armenia Alliance (4.4%) and Prosperous Armenia (3.4%), most below the 4-8% proportional representation thresholds, ensures Civil Contract's expected National Assembly plurality and bonus seats to a 54% majority on June 7. Late shifts could arise from scandals, border tensions, or undecided voter swings (nearly 40%), though trends favor continuity.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCivil Contract 94%
Strong Armenia 5.8%
Armenia Alliance <1%
Prosperous Armenia <1%
$178,941 Vol.
$178,941 Vol.
Jun 7, 2026
Civil Contract
94%
Strong Armenia
6%
Armenia Alliance
<1%
Prosperous Armenia
<1%
I Have Honor Alliance
<1%
Armenian National Congress
<1%
Bright Armenia
<1%
Hanrapetutyun Party
<1%
Heritage
<1%
Orinats Yerkir
<1%
Civil Contract 94%
Strong Armenia 5.8%
Armenia Alliance <1%
Prosperous Armenia <1%
$178,941 Vol.
$178,941 Vol.
Jun 7, 2026
Civil Contract
$55,076 Vol.
94%
Strong Armenia
$8,860 Vol.
6%
Armenia Alliance
$56,768 Vol.
<1%
Prosperous Armenia
$9,644 Vol.
<1%
I Have Honor Alliance
$7,112 Vol.
<1%
Armenian National Congress
$8,723 Vol.
<1%
Bright Armenia
$7,636 Vol.
<1%
Hanrapetutyun Party
$7,262 Vol.
<1%
Heritage
$8,131 Vol.
<1%
Orinats Yerkir
$9,730 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Armenia on June 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Armenian National Assembly in this election.
If voting in the Armenian parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Armenian National Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Armenian government, specifically the Armenian Central Election Commission (https://www.elections.am/).Civil Contract's commanding 93.5% implied probability in the Armenia parliamentary election winner market reflects trader consensus on recent polls showing the incumbent party's stable 30-33% vote intention lead—such as EVN Report's April-May survey at 32.5% versus Strong Armenia's 10.1%—bolstered by Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's rising 49% approval amid improving public views on security and economy. Fragmentation among opposition alliances like Armenia Alliance (4.4%) and Prosperous Armenia (3.4%), most below the 4-8% proportional representation thresholds, ensures Civil Contract's expected National Assembly plurality and bonus seats to a 54% majority on June 7. Late shifts could arise from scandals, border tensions, or undecided voter swings (nearly 40%), though trends favor continuity.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Armenia on June 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Armenian National Assembly in this election.
If voting in the Armenian parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Armenian National Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Armenian government, specifically the Armenian Central Election Commission (https://www.elections.am/).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Armenian National Assembly in this election.
If voting in the Armenian parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Armenian National Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Armenian government, specifically the Armenian Central Election Commission (https://www.elections.am/).
Market Opened: Dec 15, 2025, 7:08 PM ET
Volume
$178,941End Date
Jun 7, 2026Market Opened
Dec 15, 2025, 7:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Armenia on June 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Armenian National Assembly in this election.
If voting in the Armenian parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Armenian National Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Armenian government, specifically the Armenian Central Election Commission (https://www.elections.am/).Civil Contract's commanding 93.5% implied probability in the Armenia parliamentary election winner market reflects trader consensus on recent polls showing the incumbent party's stable 30-33% vote intention lead—such as EVN Report's April-May survey at 32.5% versus Strong Armenia's 10.1%—bolstered by Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's rising 49% approval amid improving public views on security and economy. Fragmentation among opposition alliances like Armenia Alliance (4.4%) and Prosperous Armenia (3.4%), most below the 4-8% proportional representation thresholds, ensures Civil Contract's expected National Assembly plurality and bonus seats to a 54% majority on June 7. Late shifts could arise from scandals, border tensions, or undecided voter swings (nearly 40%), though trends favor continuity.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Armenia on June 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Armenian National Assembly in this election.
If voting in the Armenian parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Armenian National Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Armenian government, specifically the Armenian Central Election Commission (https://www.elections.am/).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Armenian National Assembly in this election.
If voting in the Armenian parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Armenian National Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Armenian government, specifically the Armenian Central Election Commission (https://www.elections.am/).
Volume
$178,941End Date
Jun 7, 2026Market Opened
Dec 15, 2025, 7:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Civil Contract's commanding 93.5% implied probability in the Armenia parliamentary election winner market reflects trader consensus on recent polls showing the incumbent party's stable 30-33% vote intention lead—such as EVN Report's April-May survey at 32.5% versus Strong Armenia's 10.1%—bolstered by Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's rising 49% approval amid improving public views on security and economy. Fragmentation among opposition alliances like Armenia Alliance (4.4%) and Prosperous Armenia (3.4%), most below the 4-8% proportional representation thresholds, ensures Civil Contract's expected National Assembly plurality and bonus seats to a 54% majority on June 7. Late shifts could arise from scandals, border tensions, or undecided voter swings (nearly 40%), though trends favor continuity.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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