Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors 22°C as Ankara's highest temperature on May 14, reflecting near-unanimous alignment with short-range forecasts from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) and observations at Esenboğa International Airport station, the market's resolution source. Current surface data shows morning temperatures around 12-14°C rising under partly cloudy skies with northerly winds and moderate humidity, consistent with mid-May climatology where average highs hover at 21-22°C amid continental spring patterns. Ensemble model runs from ECMWF and GFS converge on a 22°C peak in early afternoon, with low solar insolation limiting further warming. Realistic shifts upward would demand prolonged clear skies or a sudden wind shift, unlikely per latest guidance; final hourly readings expected by evening will confirm.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Ankara on May 14?
Highest temperature in Ankara on May 14?
22°C 100.0%
15°C or below <1%
16°C <1%
17°C <1%
$121,725 Vol.
$121,725 Vol.
May 14, 2026
15°C or below
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
Yes
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C or higher
No
22°C 100.0%
15°C or below <1%
16°C <1%
17°C <1%
$121,725 Vol.
$121,725 Vol.
May 14, 2026
15°C or below
$2,272 Vol.
No
16°C
$1,363 Vol.
No
17°C
$3,548 Vol.
No
18°C
$9,167 Vol.
No
19°C
$10,724 Vol.
No
20°C
$25,407 Vol.
No
21°C
$19,155 Vol.
No
22°C
$15,350 Vol.
Yes
23°C
$12,707 Vol.
No
24°C
$10,533 Vol.
No
25°C or higher
$11,498 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors 22°C as Ankara's highest temperature on May 14, reflecting near-unanimous alignment with short-range forecasts from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) and observations at Esenboğa International Airport station, the market's resolution source. Current surface data shows morning temperatures around 12-14°C rising under partly cloudy skies with northerly winds and moderate humidity, consistent with mid-May climatology where average highs hover at 21-22°C amid continental spring patterns. Ensemble model runs from ECMWF and GFS converge on a 22°C peak in early afternoon, with low solar insolation limiting further warming. Realistic shifts upward would demand prolonged clear skies or a sudden wind shift, unlikely per latest guidance; final hourly readings expected by evening will confirm.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 12, 2026, 12:12 AM ET
Volume
$121,725End Date
May 14, 2026Market Opened
May 12, 2026, 12:12 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors 22°C as Ankara's highest temperature on May 14, reflecting near-unanimous alignment with short-range forecasts from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) and observations at Esenboğa International Airport station, the market's resolution source. Current surface data shows morning temperatures around 12-14°C rising under partly cloudy skies with northerly winds and moderate humidity, consistent with mid-May climatology where average highs hover at 21-22°C amid continental spring patterns. Ensemble model runs from ECMWF and GFS converge on a 22°C peak in early afternoon, with low solar insolation limiting further warming. Realistic shifts upward would demand prolonged clear skies or a sudden wind shift, unlikely per latest guidance; final hourly readings expected by evening will confirm.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$121,725End Date
May 14, 2026Market Opened
May 12, 2026, 12:12 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors 22°C as Ankara's highest temperature on May 14, reflecting near-unanimous alignment with short-range forecasts from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) and observations at Esenboğa International Airport station, the market's resolution source. Current surface data shows morning temperatures around 12-14°C rising under partly cloudy skies with northerly winds and moderate humidity, consistent with mid-May climatology where average highs hover at 21-22°C amid continental spring patterns. Ensemble model runs from ECMWF and GFS converge on a 22°C peak in early afternoon, with low solar insolation limiting further warming. Realistic shifts upward would demand prolonged clear skies or a sudden wind shift, unlikely per latest guidance; final hourly readings expected by evening will confirm.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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