Recent meteorological observations and short-range model consensus from the China Meteorological Administration and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts show persistent cloud cover and light rain over Beijing on May 16, limiting solar insolation and suppressing daytime heating to produce a maximum of 25°C or below. This synoptic setup aligns with the market’s near-certain 100% implied probability for that outcome, reflecting traders’ assessment of current atmospheric conditions against typical mid-May climatology of 26–28°C. A realistic challenge would require rapid clearing of clouds or an unexpected shift in steering flow that allows greater surface heating before sunset; however, ongoing monitoring through the afternoon will likely lock in the cooler reading unless those variables change markedly.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Beijing on May 16?
Highest temperature in Beijing on May 16?
25°C or below 100.0%
26°C <1%
27°C <1%
28°C <1%
$83,000 Vol.
$83,000 Vol.
May 16, 2026
25°C or below
Yes
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C or higher
No
25°C or below 100.0%
26°C <1%
27°C <1%
28°C <1%
$83,000 Vol.
$83,000 Vol.
May 16, 2026
25°C or below
$14,888 Vol.
Yes
26°C
$15,394 Vol.
No
27°C
$9,774 Vol.
No
28°C
$11,484 Vol.
No
29°C
$6,863 Vol.
No
30°C
$7,280 Vol.
No
31°C
$3,486 Vol.
No
32°C
$3,554 Vol.
No
33°C
$6,336 Vol.
No
34°C
$2,652 Vol.
No
35°C or higher
$1,288 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent meteorological observations and short-range model consensus from the China Meteorological Administration and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts show persistent cloud cover and light rain over Beijing on May 16, limiting solar insolation and suppressing daytime heating to produce a maximum of 25°C or below. This synoptic setup aligns with the market’s near-certain 100% implied probability for that outcome, reflecting traders’ assessment of current atmospheric conditions against typical mid-May climatology of 26–28°C. A realistic challenge would require rapid clearing of clouds or an unexpected shift in steering flow that allows greater surface heating before sunset; however, ongoing monitoring through the afternoon will likely lock in the cooler reading unless those variables change markedly.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 14, 2026, 12:12 AM ET
Volume
$83,000End Date
May 16, 2026Market Opened
May 14, 2026, 12:12 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent meteorological observations and short-range model consensus from the China Meteorological Administration and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts show persistent cloud cover and light rain over Beijing on May 16, limiting solar insolation and suppressing daytime heating to produce a maximum of 25°C or below. This synoptic setup aligns with the market’s near-certain 100% implied probability for that outcome, reflecting traders’ assessment of current atmospheric conditions against typical mid-May climatology of 26–28°C. A realistic challenge would require rapid clearing of clouds or an unexpected shift in steering flow that allows greater surface heating before sunset; however, ongoing monitoring through the afternoon will likely lock in the cooler reading unless those variables change markedly.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$83,000End Date
May 16, 2026Market Opened
May 14, 2026, 12:12 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Recent meteorological observations and short-range model consensus from the China Meteorological Administration and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts show persistent cloud cover and light rain over Beijing on May 16, limiting solar insolation and suppressing daytime heating to produce a maximum of 25°C or below. This synoptic setup aligns with the market’s near-certain 100% implied probability for that outcome, reflecting traders’ assessment of current atmospheric conditions against typical mid-May climatology of 26–28°C. A realistic challenge would require rapid clearing of clouds or an unexpected shift in steering flow that allows greater surface heating before sunset; however, ongoing monitoring through the afternoon will likely lock in the cooler reading unless those variables change markedly.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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