Current meteorological observations and forecast models from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration indicate a Beijing high near 19°C today, driven by cooler-than-average spring conditions with persistent northerly flow and limited daytime heating. This consensus supports the market's dominant 98.3% implied probability for 19°C, as recent model runs align closely with surface measurements at the primary observation site. Historical May averages hover around 26°C, but today's stable high-pressure pattern and moderate humidity have suppressed warming. The outcome could shift only if unforecasted southerly advection or localized urban heat effects push readings to 20°C or above before evening, though updated guidance shows low likelihood of such changes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Beijing on May 17?
Highest temperature in Beijing on May 17?
19°C 98.6%
20°C 1.2%
23°C or higher <1%
21°C <1%
$67,741 Vol.
$67,741 Vol.
May 17, 2026
13°C or below
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
99%
20°C
1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C or higher
1%
19°C 98.6%
20°C 1.2%
23°C or higher <1%
21°C <1%
$67,741 Vol.
$67,741 Vol.
May 17, 2026
13°C or below
$517 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$640 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$1,765 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$6,574 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$8,776 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$14,280 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$8,214 Vol.
99%
20°C
$7,624 Vol.
1%
21°C
$5,357 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$7,360 Vol.
<1%
23°C or higher
$6,673 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current meteorological observations and forecast models from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration indicate a Beijing high near 19°C today, driven by cooler-than-average spring conditions with persistent northerly flow and limited daytime heating. This consensus supports the market's dominant 98.3% implied probability for 19°C, as recent model runs align closely with surface measurements at the primary observation site. Historical May averages hover around 26°C, but today's stable high-pressure pattern and moderate humidity have suppressed warming. The outcome could shift only if unforecasted southerly advection or localized urban heat effects push readings to 20°C or above before evening, though updated guidance shows low likelihood of such changes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volume
$67,741End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current meteorological observations and forecast models from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration indicate a Beijing high near 19°C today, driven by cooler-than-average spring conditions with persistent northerly flow and limited daytime heating. This consensus supports the market's dominant 98.3% implied probability for 19°C, as recent model runs align closely with surface measurements at the primary observation site. Historical May averages hover around 26°C, but today's stable high-pressure pattern and moderate humidity have suppressed warming. The outcome could shift only if unforecasted southerly advection or localized urban heat effects push readings to 20°C or above before evening, though updated guidance shows low likelihood of such changes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$67,741End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAACurrent meteorological observations and forecast models from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration indicate a Beijing high near 19°C today, driven by cooler-than-average spring conditions with persistent northerly flow and limited daytime heating. This consensus supports the market's dominant 98.3% implied probability for 19°C, as recent model runs align closely with surface measurements at the primary observation site. Historical May averages hover around 26°C, but today's stable high-pressure pattern and moderate humidity have suppressed warming. The outcome could shift only if unforecasted southerly advection or localized urban heat effects push readings to 20°C or above before evening, though updated guidance shows low likelihood of such changes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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