Forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and ensemble models converge on a Beijing maximum near 27°C for May 18, driven by predominantly sunny skies and light southerly flow that promotes steady daytime warming without strong cold-air advection or persistent cloud cover to limit solar heating. This narrow uncertainty band explains why 27°C and 28°C hold the largest shares of market-implied probability, with traders incorporating the realistic potential for a 1°C adjustment based on final observations at Beijing Capital International Airport. Historical May climatology shows typical highs in this range under similar high-pressure setups, while any subtle shifts in boundary-layer moisture or wind speed could tip the peak across the 27–28°C threshold on resolution day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Beijing on May 18?
Highest temperature in Beijing on May 18?
27°C 33%
28°C 25%
26°C 17%
25°C 14%
NEW
$25,276 Vol.
NEW
$25,276 Vol.
May 18, 2026
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
1%
24°C
3%
25°C
14%
26°C
17%
27°C
33%
28°C
25%
29°C
6%
30°C
2%
31°C
1%
32°C or higher
<1%
27°C 33%
28°C 25%
26°C 17%
25°C 14%
NEW
$25,276 Vol.
NEW
$25,276 Vol.
May 18, 2026
22°C or below
$8,423 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$3,227 Vol.
1%
24°C
$3,197 Vol.
3%
25°C
$1,993 Vol.
14%
26°C
$1,921 Vol.
17%
27°C
$1,129 Vol.
33%
28°C
$1,013 Vol.
25%
29°C
$726 Vol.
6%
30°C
$425 Vol.
2%
31°C
$1,345 Vol.
1%
32°C or higher
$1,981 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and ensemble models converge on a Beijing maximum near 27°C for May 18, driven by predominantly sunny skies and light southerly flow that promotes steady daytime warming without strong cold-air advection or persistent cloud cover to limit solar heating. This narrow uncertainty band explains why 27°C and 28°C hold the largest shares of market-implied probability, with traders incorporating the realistic potential for a 1°C adjustment based on final observations at Beijing Capital International Airport. Historical May climatology shows typical highs in this range under similar high-pressure setups, while any subtle shifts in boundary-layer moisture or wind speed could tip the peak across the 27–28°C threshold on resolution day.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 16, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volume
$25,276End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 16, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and ensemble models converge on a Beijing maximum near 27°C for May 18, driven by predominantly sunny skies and light southerly flow that promotes steady daytime warming without strong cold-air advection or persistent cloud cover to limit solar heating. This narrow uncertainty band explains why 27°C and 28°C hold the largest shares of market-implied probability, with traders incorporating the realistic potential for a 1°C adjustment based on final observations at Beijing Capital International Airport. Historical May climatology shows typical highs in this range under similar high-pressure setups, while any subtle shifts in boundary-layer moisture or wind speed could tip the peak across the 27–28°C threshold on resolution day.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$25,276End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 16, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAForecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and ensemble models converge on a Beijing maximum near 27°C for May 18, driven by predominantly sunny skies and light southerly flow that promotes steady daytime warming without strong cold-air advection or persistent cloud cover to limit solar heating. This narrow uncertainty band explains why 27°C and 28°C hold the largest shares of market-implied probability, with traders incorporating the realistic potential for a 1°C adjustment based on final observations at Beijing Capital International Airport. Historical May climatology shows typical highs in this range under similar high-pressure setups, while any subtle shifts in boundary-layer moisture or wind speed could tip the peak across the 27–28°C threshold on resolution day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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