Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a high temperature of 86°F or higher in Houston on May 15 (89% implied probability), aligned with the National Weather Service forecast for mostly sunny skies and a peak near 89°F at key observing sites like Houston Intercontinental Airport. This positioning stems from a dominant upper-level ridge over Texas fostering subsidence, clear skies, and efficient daytime heating amid an air mass preconditioned by recent highs in the mid-80s and an ongoing ozone action day indicating stagnant, warm conditions. Model consensus from GFS and ECMWF runs over the past 24 hours shows little deviation, with mid-May climatological normals around 88°F providing historical precedent. Minor uncertainty persists from potential afternoon cumulus clouds or subtle Gulf breeze influences, but latest guidance minimizes these risks; watch for evening NWS forecast updates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Houston on May 15?
Highest temperature in Houston on May 15?
86°F or higher 90%
84-85°F 8%
82-83°F 2.2%
80-81°F <1%
NEW
$11,112 Vol.
NEW
$11,112 Vol.
May 15, 2026
67°F or below
<1%
68-69°F
<1%
70-71°F
<1%
72-73°F
<1%
74-75°F
<1%
76-77°F
<1%
78-79°F
<1%
80-81°F
1%
82-83°F
2%
84-85°F
8%
86°F or higher
90%
86°F or higher 90%
84-85°F 8%
82-83°F 2.2%
80-81°F <1%
NEW
$11,112 Vol.
NEW
$11,112 Vol.
May 15, 2026
67°F or below
$1,186 Vol.
<1%
68-69°F
$1,303 Vol.
<1%
70-71°F
$1,298 Vol.
<1%
72-73°F
$1,391 Vol.
<1%
74-75°F
$1,733 Vol.
<1%
76-77°F
$549 Vol.
<1%
78-79°F
$568 Vol.
<1%
80-81°F
$705 Vol.
1%
82-83°F
$331 Vol.
2%
84-85°F
$1,479 Vol.
8%
86°F or higher
$571 Vol.
90%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a high temperature of 86°F or higher in Houston on May 15 (89% implied probability), aligned with the National Weather Service forecast for mostly sunny skies and a peak near 89°F at key observing sites like Houston Intercontinental Airport. This positioning stems from a dominant upper-level ridge over Texas fostering subsidence, clear skies, and efficient daytime heating amid an air mass preconditioned by recent highs in the mid-80s and an ongoing ozone action day indicating stagnant, warm conditions. Model consensus from GFS and ECMWF runs over the past 24 hours shows little deviation, with mid-May climatological normals around 88°F providing historical precedent. Minor uncertainty persists from potential afternoon cumulus clouds or subtle Gulf breeze influences, but latest guidance minimizes these risks; watch for evening NWS forecast updates.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 13, 2026, 12:44 AM ET
Volume
$11,112End Date
May 15, 2026Market Opened
May 13, 2026, 12:44 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a high temperature of 86°F or higher in Houston on May 15 (89% implied probability), aligned with the National Weather Service forecast for mostly sunny skies and a peak near 89°F at key observing sites like Houston Intercontinental Airport. This positioning stems from a dominant upper-level ridge over Texas fostering subsidence, clear skies, and efficient daytime heating amid an air mass preconditioned by recent highs in the mid-80s and an ongoing ozone action day indicating stagnant, warm conditions. Model consensus from GFS and ECMWF runs over the past 24 hours shows little deviation, with mid-May climatological normals around 88°F providing historical precedent. Minor uncertainty persists from potential afternoon cumulus clouds or subtle Gulf breeze influences, but latest guidance minimizes these risks; watch for evening NWS forecast updates.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$11,112End Date
May 15, 2026Market Opened
May 13, 2026, 12:44 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a high temperature of 86°F or higher in Houston on May 15 (89% implied probability), aligned with the National Weather Service forecast for mostly sunny skies and a peak near 89°F at key observing sites like Houston Intercontinental Airport. This positioning stems from a dominant upper-level ridge over Texas fostering subsidence, clear skies, and efficient daytime heating amid an air mass preconditioned by recent highs in the mid-80s and an ongoing ozone action day indicating stagnant, warm conditions. Model consensus from GFS and ECMWF runs over the past 24 hours shows little deviation, with mid-May climatological normals around 88°F providing historical precedent. Minor uncertainty persists from potential afternoon cumulus clouds or subtle Gulf breeze influences, but latest guidance minimizes these risks; watch for evening NWS forecast updates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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