National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble model runs project Houston highs in the upper 80s today under southerly flow and mostly clear skies that promote strong daytime heating. This aligns with climatological norms near 87°F for mid-May and explains the 94% market-implied probability for 86°F or higher. Recent observations confirm temperatures already climbing past 80°F by late morning, with minimal cloud cover or moisture expected to limit cooling. Only a sharp increase in afternoon convection or a stronger-than-anticipated sea breeze could keep the daily maximum below the dominant threshold, though current guidance shows little support for such outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Houston on May 17?
Highest temperature in Houston on May 17?
86°F or higher 94.0%
84-85°F 6%
82-83°F <1%
67°F or below <1%
$14,487 Vol.
$14,487 Vol.
May 17, 2026
67°F or below
<1%
68-69°F
<1%
70-71°F
<1%
72-73°F
<1%
74-75°F
<1%
76-77°F
<1%
78-79°F
<1%
80-81°F
<1%
82-83°F
1%
84-85°F
6%
86°F or higher
94%
86°F or higher 94.0%
84-85°F 6%
82-83°F <1%
67°F or below <1%
$14,487 Vol.
$14,487 Vol.
May 17, 2026
67°F or below
$1,361 Vol.
<1%
68-69°F
$2,053 Vol.
<1%
70-71°F
$3,678 Vol.
<1%
72-73°F
$366 Vol.
<1%
74-75°F
$476 Vol.
<1%
76-77°F
$250 Vol.
<1%
78-79°F
$795 Vol.
<1%
80-81°F
$1,585 Vol.
<1%
82-83°F
$1,200 Vol.
1%
84-85°F
$1,519 Vol.
6%
86°F or higher
$1,204 Vol.
94%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble model runs project Houston highs in the upper 80s today under southerly flow and mostly clear skies that promote strong daytime heating. This aligns with climatological norms near 87°F for mid-May and explains the 94% market-implied probability for 86°F or higher. Recent observations confirm temperatures already climbing past 80°F by late morning, with minimal cloud cover or moisture expected to limit cooling. Only a sharp increase in afternoon convection or a stronger-than-anticipated sea breeze could keep the daily maximum below the dominant threshold, though current guidance shows little support for such outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volume
$14,487End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble model runs project Houston highs in the upper 80s today under southerly flow and mostly clear skies that promote strong daytime heating. This aligns with climatological norms near 87°F for mid-May and explains the 94% market-implied probability for 86°F or higher. Recent observations confirm temperatures already climbing past 80°F by late morning, with minimal cloud cover or moisture expected to limit cooling. Only a sharp increase in afternoon convection or a stronger-than-anticipated sea breeze could keep the daily maximum below the dominant threshold, though current guidance shows little support for such outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$14,487End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUNational Weather Service forecasts and ensemble model runs project Houston highs in the upper 80s today under southerly flow and mostly clear skies that promote strong daytime heating. This aligns with climatological norms near 87°F for mid-May and explains the 94% market-implied probability for 86°F or higher. Recent observations confirm temperatures already climbing past 80°F by late morning, with minimal cloud cover or moisture expected to limit cooling. Only a sharp increase in afternoon convection or a stronger-than-anticipated sea breeze could keep the daily maximum below the dominant threshold, though current guidance shows little support for such outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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