Strong model consensus from multiple global and regional forecasts drives the overwhelming 96.5% market-implied probability for a highest temperature of 26°C or higher in Jinan on September 15. Numerical weather prediction runs indicate mostly sunny conditions with daytime highs of 30–34°C under southwesterly flow, typical for mid-September climatology in Shandong province when subsidence and clear skies promote strong solar heating. Official observations from recent days show similar warm, dry patterns with minimal cloud cover. A realistic challenge would require a sharp increase in convective cloudiness or an unexpected cold front, though current ensemble spreads remain narrow and favor the warmer outcome with little expected revision before the daily maximum is recorded.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Jinan on September 15?
Highest temperature in Jinan on September 15?
26°C or higher 94%
24°C 6%
25°C 6%
16°C or below 4%
NEW
NEW
Sep 15, 2026
16°C or below
4%
17°C
4%
18°C
4%
19°C
4%
20°C
4%
21°C
4%
22°C
3%
23°C
3%
24°C
6%
25°C
6%
26°C or higher
94%
26°C or higher 94%
24°C 6%
25°C 6%
16°C or below 4%
NEW
NEW
Sep 15, 2026
16°C or below
$10 Vol.
4%
17°C
$10 Vol.
4%
18°C
$10 Vol.
4%
19°C
$10 Vol.
4%
20°C
$10 Vol.
4%
21°C
$10 Vol.
4%
22°C
$10 Vol.
3%
23°C
$10 Vol.
3%
24°C
$10 Vol.
6%
25°C
$28 Vol.
6%
26°C or higher
$288 Vol.
94%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/jinan/ZSJN.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Strong model consensus from multiple global and regional forecasts drives the overwhelming 96.5% market-implied probability for a highest temperature of 26°C or higher in Jinan on September 15. Numerical weather prediction runs indicate mostly sunny conditions with daytime highs of 30–34°C under southwesterly flow, typical for mid-September climatology in Shandong province when subsidence and clear skies promote strong solar heating. Official observations from recent days show similar warm, dry patterns with minimal cloud cover. A realistic challenge would require a sharp increase in convective cloudiness or an unexpected cold front, though current ensemble spreads remain narrow and favor the warmer outcome with little expected revision before the daily maximum is recorded.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/jinan/ZSJN.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/jinan/ZSJN.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 14, 2026, 12:55 AM ET
Volume
$375End Date
Sep 15, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 12:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/jinan/ZSJNResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/jinan/ZSJN.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Strong model consensus from multiple global and regional forecasts drives the overwhelming 96.5% market-implied probability for a highest temperature of 26°C or higher in Jinan on September 15. Numerical weather prediction runs indicate mostly sunny conditions with daytime highs of 30–34°C under southwesterly flow, typical for mid-September climatology in Shandong province when subsidence and clear skies promote strong solar heating. Official observations from recent days show similar warm, dry patterns with minimal cloud cover. A realistic challenge would require a sharp increase in convective cloudiness or an unexpected cold front, though current ensemble spreads remain narrow and favor the warmer outcome with little expected revision before the daily maximum is recorded.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/jinan/ZSJN.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/jinan/ZSJN.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$375End Date
Sep 15, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 12:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/jinan/ZSJNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Strong model consensus from multiple global and regional forecasts drives the overwhelming 96.5% market-implied probability for a highest temperature of 26°C or higher in Jinan on September 15. Numerical weather prediction runs indicate mostly sunny conditions with daytime highs of 30–34°C under southwesterly flow, typical for mid-September climatology in Shandong province when subsidence and clear skies promote strong solar heating. Official observations from recent days show similar warm, dry patterns with minimal cloud cover. A realistic challenge would require a sharp increase in convective cloudiness or an unexpected cold front, though current ensemble spreads remain narrow and favor the warmer outcome with little expected revision before the daily maximum is recorded.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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