Recent ensemble forecasts from global models such as ECMWF and GFS place Moscow’s daytime maximum on May 17 near 26 °C under a stable high-pressure ridge, driving the 44 % market-implied probability for that exact outcome. A modest warm-air advection from the south has lifted readings several degrees above the long-term May average of 18–20 °C, narrowing the likely range to 25–27 °C and explaining the tight clustering of probabilities around those three bins. Minor model spread in boundary-layer moisture and afternoon mixing keeps the 25 °C and 27 °C outcomes near 25 % each. Official verification by Roshydromet later today will resolve the market, with any late-day frontal passage representing the main remaining source of uncertainty.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Moscow on May 17?
Highest temperature in Moscow on May 17?
26°C 41.9%
27°C 26.7%
25°C 26%
28°C or higher 5.0%
$21,558 Vol.
$21,558 Vol.
May 17, 2026
18°C or below
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
26%
26°C
37%
27°C
27%
28°C or higher
5%
26°C 41.9%
27°C 26.7%
25°C 26%
28°C or higher 5.0%
$21,558 Vol.
$21,558 Vol.
May 17, 2026
18°C or below
$1,473 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$1,641 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$1,344 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$2,934 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$2,240 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$3,228 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$3,214 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$1,574 Vol.
26%
26°C
$1,377 Vol.
37%
27°C
$1,372 Vol.
27%
28°C or higher
$2,177 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent ensemble forecasts from global models such as ECMWF and GFS place Moscow’s daytime maximum on May 17 near 26 °C under a stable high-pressure ridge, driving the 44 % market-implied probability for that exact outcome. A modest warm-air advection from the south has lifted readings several degrees above the long-term May average of 18–20 °C, narrowing the likely range to 25–27 °C and explaining the tight clustering of probabilities around those three bins. Minor model spread in boundary-layer moisture and afternoon mixing keeps the 25 °C and 27 °C outcomes near 25 % each. Official verification by Roshydromet later today will resolve the market, with any late-day frontal passage representing the main remaining source of uncertainty.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volume
$21,558End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent ensemble forecasts from global models such as ECMWF and GFS place Moscow’s daytime maximum on May 17 near 26 °C under a stable high-pressure ridge, driving the 44 % market-implied probability for that exact outcome. A modest warm-air advection from the south has lifted readings several degrees above the long-term May average of 18–20 °C, narrowing the likely range to 25–27 °C and explaining the tight clustering of probabilities around those three bins. Minor model spread in boundary-layer moisture and afternoon mixing keeps the 25 °C and 27 °C outcomes near 25 % each. Official verification by Roshydromet later today will resolve the market, with any late-day frontal passage representing the main remaining source of uncertainty.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$21,558End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ETRecent ensemble forecasts from global models such as ECMWF and GFS place Moscow’s daytime maximum on May 17 near 26 °C under a stable high-pressure ridge, driving the 44 % market-implied probability for that exact outcome. A modest warm-air advection from the south has lifted readings several degrees above the long-term May average of 18–20 °C, narrowing the likely range to 25–27 °C and explaining the tight clustering of probabilities around those three bins. Minor model spread in boundary-layer moisture and afternoon mixing keeps the 25 °C and 27 °C outcomes near 25 % each. Official verification by Roshydromet later today will resolve the market, with any late-day frontal passage representing the main remaining source of uncertainty.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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