National Weather Service model ensembles, including the GFS, ECMWF, and NAM, currently converge on a peak temperature of 85–88 °F at LaGuardia Airport, the official resolution site, which underpins the market’s leading outcomes for 86–87 °F and 88–89 °F. Minor differences in afternoon boundary-layer mixing depth and the exact timing of maximum solar insolation create the narrow spread between these buckets, while a modest chance of slightly stronger heating supports the 90–91 °F tier. With the day’s high still forming under mostly sunny, light-wind conditions typical for mid-May, traders are weighting the latest model guidance heavily as resolution approaches.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in NYC on May 17?
Highest temperature in NYC on May 17?
88-89°F 41%
86-87°F 27%
90-91°F 17.6%
84-85°F 14%
$47,696 Vol.
$47,696 Vol.
May 17, 2026
79°F or below
<1%
80-81°F
<1%
82-83°F
1%
84-85°F
14%
86-87°F
27%
88-89°F
41%
90-91°F
18%
92-93°F
2%
94-95°F
<1%
96-97°F
<1%
98°F or higher
<1%
88-89°F 41%
86-87°F 27%
90-91°F 17.6%
84-85°F 14%
$47,696 Vol.
$47,696 Vol.
May 17, 2026
79°F or below
$9,189 Vol.
<1%
80-81°F
$6,401 Vol.
<1%
82-83°F
$4,416 Vol.
1%
84-85°F
$4,901 Vol.
14%
86-87°F
$5,293 Vol.
27%
88-89°F
$3,084 Vol.
41%
90-91°F
$3,595 Vol.
18%
92-93°F
$2,627 Vol.
2%
94-95°F
$3,544 Vol.
<1%
96-97°F
$3,440 Vol.
<1%
98°F or higher
$2,751 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.National Weather Service model ensembles, including the GFS, ECMWF, and NAM, currently converge on a peak temperature of 85–88 °F at LaGuardia Airport, the official resolution site, which underpins the market’s leading outcomes for 86–87 °F and 88–89 °F. Minor differences in afternoon boundary-layer mixing depth and the exact timing of maximum solar insolation create the narrow spread between these buckets, while a modest chance of slightly stronger heating supports the 90–91 °F tier. With the day’s high still forming under mostly sunny, light-wind conditions typical for mid-May, traders are weighting the latest model guidance heavily as resolution approaches.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 15, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$47,696End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.National Weather Service model ensembles, including the GFS, ECMWF, and NAM, currently converge on a peak temperature of 85–88 °F at LaGuardia Airport, the official resolution site, which underpins the market’s leading outcomes for 86–87 °F and 88–89 °F. Minor differences in afternoon boundary-layer mixing depth and the exact timing of maximum solar insolation create the narrow spread between these buckets, while a modest chance of slightly stronger heating supports the 90–91 °F tier. With the day’s high still forming under mostly sunny, light-wind conditions typical for mid-May, traders are weighting the latest model guidance heavily as resolution approaches.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$47,696End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGANational Weather Service model ensembles, including the GFS, ECMWF, and NAM, currently converge on a peak temperature of 85–88 °F at LaGuardia Airport, the official resolution site, which underpins the market’s leading outcomes for 86–87 °F and 88–89 °F. Minor differences in afternoon boundary-layer mixing depth and the exact timing of maximum solar insolation create the narrow spread between these buckets, while a modest chance of slightly stronger heating supports the 90–91 °F tier. With the day’s high still forming under mostly sunny, light-wind conditions typical for mid-May, traders are weighting the latest model guidance heavily as resolution approaches.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions