Recent National Weather Service ensemble forecasts indicate a southerly flow advecting warmer air into the Northeast, positioning the May 18 maximum in New York City near 79–81°F and driving the market’s leading probabilities for the 80–81°F and 78–79°F bins. Subtle differences among GFS, ECMWF, and NAM runs center on afternoon cloud cover and the strength of the coastal sea breeze, both of which can limit peak heating by 1–3°F. With the seasonal May average high at 76°F, current guidance reflects above-normal warmth from a moderating air mass, yet the tight spread across the 78–83°F range highlights lingering uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and exact frontal timing. Updated model runs and the next NWS forecast discussion are expected within 24 hours and could shift probabilities among these closely matched outcomes.