Strong model consensus from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System currently locks in a daily maximum near 27°C for Shanghai, driven by persistent high-pressure ridging that favors subsidence warming alongside light southerly flow advecting warmer air masses under mostly clear skies. This setup sits modestly above the mid-May climatological normal of roughly 25°C, with minimal cloud cover and stable atmospheric conditions limiting significant deviations. Traders track the final 12-hour updates from the Shanghai Meteorological Service for any last-minute shifts in wind or moisture that could nudge the peak by a degree. Official resolution rests on the recorded observation at Shanghai Pudong International Airport, where even small forecast revisions could briefly reopen narrower probabilities before market close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shanghai on May 17?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on May 17?
27°C 100.0%
21°C or below <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$131,342 Vol.
$131,342 Vol.
May 17, 2026
21°C or below
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
100%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C or higher
<1%
27°C 100.0%
21°C or below <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$131,342 Vol.
$131,342 Vol.
May 17, 2026
21°C or below
$2,126 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$6,104 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$7,382 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$8,480 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$18,561 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$18,069 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$23,830 Vol.
100%
28°C
$14,110 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$13,952 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$11,963 Vol.
<1%
31°C or higher
$6,838 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Strong model consensus from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System currently locks in a daily maximum near 27°C for Shanghai, driven by persistent high-pressure ridging that favors subsidence warming alongside light southerly flow advecting warmer air masses under mostly clear skies. This setup sits modestly above the mid-May climatological normal of roughly 25°C, with minimal cloud cover and stable atmospheric conditions limiting significant deviations. Traders track the final 12-hour updates from the Shanghai Meteorological Service for any last-minute shifts in wind or moisture that could nudge the peak by a degree. Official resolution rests on the recorded observation at Shanghai Pudong International Airport, where even small forecast revisions could briefly reopen narrower probabilities before market close.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$131,342End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Strong model consensus from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System currently locks in a daily maximum near 27°C for Shanghai, driven by persistent high-pressure ridging that favors subsidence warming alongside light southerly flow advecting warmer air masses under mostly clear skies. This setup sits modestly above the mid-May climatological normal of roughly 25°C, with minimal cloud cover and stable atmospheric conditions limiting significant deviations. Traders track the final 12-hour updates from the Shanghai Meteorological Service for any last-minute shifts in wind or moisture that could nudge the peak by a degree. Official resolution rests on the recorded observation at Shanghai Pudong International Airport, where even small forecast revisions could briefly reopen narrower probabilities before market close.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$131,342End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDStrong model consensus from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System currently locks in a daily maximum near 27°C for Shanghai, driven by persistent high-pressure ridging that favors subsidence warming alongside light southerly flow advecting warmer air masses under mostly clear skies. This setup sits modestly above the mid-May climatological normal of roughly 25°C, with minimal cloud cover and stable atmospheric conditions limiting significant deviations. Traders track the final 12-hour updates from the Shanghai Meteorological Service for any last-minute shifts in wind or moisture that could nudge the peak by a degree. Official resolution rests on the recorded observation at Shanghai Pudong International Airport, where even small forecast revisions could briefly reopen narrower probabilities before market close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions