Ensemble forecasts from the Israel Meteorological Service and global models currently point to a daytime maximum near 30°C in Tel Aviv on May 18, establishing that outcome as the market leader at 40% implied probability. A strengthening high-pressure ridge over the eastern Mediterranean is driving subsidence, strong solar heating, and limited cloud cover that should allow surface warming above the seasonal late-spring average of 26–28°C. Minimal sea-breeze moderation through midday is expected to amplify peak readings. Recent model runs have converged on this range, with final updates and real-time observations from Ben Gurion International Airport poised to refine the exact high before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tel Aviv on May 18?
Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on May 18?
30°C 40%
31°C 26.5%
32°C or higher 15.1%
29°C 10%
NEW
$10,003 Vol.
NEW
$10,003 Vol.
May 18, 2026
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
1%
26°C
1%
27°C
1%
28°C
3%
29°C
10%
30°C
40%
31°C
27%
32°C or higher
15%
30°C 40%
31°C 26.5%
32°C or higher 15.1%
29°C 10%
NEW
$10,003 Vol.
NEW
$10,003 Vol.
May 18, 2026
22°C or below
$983 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$580 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$506 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$410 Vol.
1%
26°C
$557 Vol.
1%
27°C
$1,033 Vol.
1%
28°C
$1,023 Vol.
3%
29°C
$1,356 Vol.
10%
30°C
$1,214 Vol.
40%
31°C
$1,798 Vol.
27%
32°C or higher
$750 Vol.
15%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Ensemble forecasts from the Israel Meteorological Service and global models currently point to a daytime maximum near 30°C in Tel Aviv on May 18, establishing that outcome as the market leader at 40% implied probability. A strengthening high-pressure ridge over the eastern Mediterranean is driving subsidence, strong solar heating, and limited cloud cover that should allow surface warming above the seasonal late-spring average of 26–28°C. Minimal sea-breeze moderation through midday is expected to amplify peak readings. Recent model runs have converged on this range, with final updates and real-time observations from Ben Gurion International Airport poised to refine the exact high before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$10,003End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Ensemble forecasts from the Israel Meteorological Service and global models currently point to a daytime maximum near 30°C in Tel Aviv on May 18, establishing that outcome as the market leader at 40% implied probability. A strengthening high-pressure ridge over the eastern Mediterranean is driving subsidence, strong solar heating, and limited cloud cover that should allow surface warming above the seasonal late-spring average of 26–28°C. Minimal sea-breeze moderation through midday is expected to amplify peak readings. Recent model runs have converged on this range, with final updates and real-time observations from Ben Gurion International Airport poised to refine the exact high before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$10,003End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 16, 2026, 12:04 AM ETEnsemble forecasts from the Israel Meteorological Service and global models currently point to a daytime maximum near 30°C in Tel Aviv on May 18, establishing that outcome as the market leader at 40% implied probability. A strengthening high-pressure ridge over the eastern Mediterranean is driving subsidence, strong solar heating, and limited cloud cover that should allow surface warming above the seasonal late-spring average of 26–28°C. Minimal sea-breeze moderation through midday is expected to amplify peak readings. Recent model runs have converged on this range, with final updates and real-time observations from Ben Gurion International Airport poised to refine the exact high before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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