Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts position Tokyo’s official maximum temperature at the Otemachi station near 28 °C on May 17, driven by a persistent high-pressure ridge promoting southerly warm advection, ample afternoon solar heating, and mostly clear skies across the Kanto Plain. Successive operational model runs have converged on this narrow range with high short-range confidence under stable synoptic conditions, producing the market’s overwhelming 99.9 % implied probability for exactly 28 °C. Historical mid-May climatology shows daily highs typically between 22 °C and 25 °C, so the current setup represents a modest but well-supported warm anomaly. The primary risks to this outcome remain an unexpected late forecast shift or minor station-specific measurement variation at resolution time.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tokyo on May 17?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 17?
28°C 99.9%
27°C <1%
20°C or below <1%
21°C <1%
$87,176 Vol.
$87,176 Vol.
May 17, 2026
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
100%
29°C
<1%
30°C or higher
<1%
28°C 99.9%
27°C <1%
20°C or below <1%
21°C <1%
$87,176 Vol.
$87,176 Vol.
May 17, 2026
20°C or below
$3,024 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$1,893 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$819 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$5,290 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$8,445 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$7,219 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$9,841 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$10,583 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$19,720 Vol.
100%
29°C
$10,530 Vol.
<1%
30°C or higher
$9,833 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts position Tokyo’s official maximum temperature at the Otemachi station near 28 °C on May 17, driven by a persistent high-pressure ridge promoting southerly warm advection, ample afternoon solar heating, and mostly clear skies across the Kanto Plain. Successive operational model runs have converged on this narrow range with high short-range confidence under stable synoptic conditions, producing the market’s overwhelming 99.9 % implied probability for exactly 28 °C. Historical mid-May climatology shows daily highs typically between 22 °C and 25 °C, so the current setup represents a modest but well-supported warm anomaly. The primary risks to this outcome remain an unexpected late forecast shift or minor station-specific measurement variation at resolution time.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$87,176End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts position Tokyo’s official maximum temperature at the Otemachi station near 28 °C on May 17, driven by a persistent high-pressure ridge promoting southerly warm advection, ample afternoon solar heating, and mostly clear skies across the Kanto Plain. Successive operational model runs have converged on this narrow range with high short-range confidence under stable synoptic conditions, producing the market’s overwhelming 99.9 % implied probability for exactly 28 °C. Historical mid-May climatology shows daily highs typically between 22 °C and 25 °C, so the current setup represents a modest but well-supported warm anomaly. The primary risks to this outcome remain an unexpected late forecast shift or minor station-specific measurement variation at resolution time.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$87,176End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTRecent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts position Tokyo’s official maximum temperature at the Otemachi station near 28 °C on May 17, driven by a persistent high-pressure ridge promoting southerly warm advection, ample afternoon solar heating, and mostly clear skies across the Kanto Plain. Successive operational model runs have converged on this narrow range with high short-range confidence under stable synoptic conditions, producing the market’s overwhelming 99.9 % implied probability for exactly 28 °C. Historical mid-May climatology shows daily highs typically between 22 °C and 25 °C, so the current setup represents a modest but well-supported warm anomaly. The primary risks to this outcome remain an unexpected late forecast shift or minor station-specific measurement variation at resolution time.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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