President Donald Trump’s second-term approval ratings have declined steadily since early 2026, reaching new lows near 34-40 percent in recent national surveys amid widespread public dissatisfaction with U.S. military involvement in the Iran conflict and its effects on domestic prices. Polling from Pew, Reuters/Ipsos, and the Washington Post-ABC News shows particular erosion on foreign policy, the economy, and inflation, with even some Republican respondents expressing reservations about rising costs. Six months before the November 2026 midterms, these trends coincide with shifting generic ballot preferences and heightened voter motivation on both sides. Any resolution of the Iran situation, legislative progress on economic measures, or changes in consumer prices could alter the trajectory, while sustained challenges in those areas would likely limit upward movement in job-approval figures through the remainder of the year.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow high will Trump's approval rating go in 2026?
How high will Trump's approval rating go in 2026?
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
↑ 44%
10%
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14%
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41%
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$4,837 Vol.
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$2,703 Vol.
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$137 Vol.
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$721 Vol.
14%
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$0 Vol.
41%
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$392 Vol.
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$0 Vol.
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$885 Vol.
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump’s approval rating according to Silver Bulletin is equal to or higher than the listed value for any date between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin' approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
If the approval rating for December 31 is not published by January 4, 2027, 12:00 PM ET (noon), this market will resolve according to all previous datapoints.President Donald Trump’s second-term approval ratings have declined steadily since early 2026, reaching new lows near 34-40 percent in recent national surveys amid widespread public dissatisfaction with U.S. military involvement in the Iran conflict and its effects on domestic prices. Polling from Pew, Reuters/Ipsos, and the Washington Post-ABC News shows particular erosion on foreign policy, the economy, and inflation, with even some Republican respondents expressing reservations about rising costs. Six months before the November 2026 midterms, these trends coincide with shifting generic ballot preferences and heightened voter motivation on both sides. Any resolution of the Iran situation, legislative progress on economic measures, or changes in consumer prices could alter the trajectory, while sustained challenges in those areas would likely limit upward movement in job-approval figures through the remainder of the year.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump’s approval rating according to Silver Bulletin is equal to or higher than the listed value for any date between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin' approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
If the approval rating for December 31 is not published by January 4, 2027, 12:00 PM ET (noon), this market will resolve according to all previous datapoints.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin' approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
If the approval rating for December 31 is not published by January 4, 2027, 12:00 PM ET (noon), this market will resolve according to all previous datapoints.
Market Opened: Dec 11, 2025, 7:33 PM ET
Volume
$4,837End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 11, 2025, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump’s approval rating according to Silver Bulletin is equal to or higher than the listed value for any date between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin' approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
If the approval rating for December 31 is not published by January 4, 2027, 12:00 PM ET (noon), this market will resolve according to all previous datapoints.President Donald Trump’s second-term approval ratings have declined steadily since early 2026, reaching new lows near 34-40 percent in recent national surveys amid widespread public dissatisfaction with U.S. military involvement in the Iran conflict and its effects on domestic prices. Polling from Pew, Reuters/Ipsos, and the Washington Post-ABC News shows particular erosion on foreign policy, the economy, and inflation, with even some Republican respondents expressing reservations about rising costs. Six months before the November 2026 midterms, these trends coincide with shifting generic ballot preferences and heightened voter motivation on both sides. Any resolution of the Iran situation, legislative progress on economic measures, or changes in consumer prices could alter the trajectory, while sustained challenges in those areas would likely limit upward movement in job-approval figures through the remainder of the year.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump’s approval rating according to Silver Bulletin is equal to or higher than the listed value for any date between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin' approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
If the approval rating for December 31 is not published by January 4, 2027, 12:00 PM ET (noon), this market will resolve according to all previous datapoints.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin' approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
If the approval rating for December 31 is not published by January 4, 2027, 12:00 PM ET (noon), this market will resolve according to all previous datapoints.
Volume
$4,837End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 11, 2025, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Donald Trump’s second-term approval ratings have declined steadily since early 2026, reaching new lows near 34-40 percent in recent national surveys amid widespread public dissatisfaction with U.S. military involvement in the Iran conflict and its effects on domestic prices. Polling from Pew, Reuters/Ipsos, and the Washington Post-ABC News shows particular erosion on foreign policy, the economy, and inflation, with even some Republican respondents expressing reservations about rising costs. Six months before the November 2026 midterms, these trends coincide with shifting generic ballot preferences and heightened voter motivation on both sides. Any resolution of the Iran situation, legislative progress on economic measures, or changes in consumer prices could alter the trajectory, while sustained challenges in those areas would likely limit upward movement in job-approval figures through the remainder of the year.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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