Recent polling averages project Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition bloc at roughly 49–54 seats and the main opposition bloc, led by Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party, at 52–55 seats in the 120-seat Knesset ahead of the October 27 election. Neither side has approached the 61-seat threshold required for a stable majority, a pattern reinforced since the election was called in July. Divisions hardened by the October 2023 attacks and subsequent war have cemented existing voter alignments without shifting bloc totals. Smaller parties, including Arab lists, hold the balance but face coalition barriers from both camps. This consistent shortfall in bloc projections underpins trader consensus that no coalition will secure a Knesset majority.