Traders have converged on 17°C as the lowest temperature in Tokyo on May 16 because Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and ensemble model runs consistently projected a minimum near that value under stable high-pressure conditions with light winds and clear skies. Mid-May climatology for the Tokyo region shows typical overnight lows between 14°C and 18°C, and current observational data aligned closely with these expectations, leaving little room for significant deviation. This scientific consensus from official monitoring creates high in the outcome. A sudden shift in steering patterns or an unforecasted marine layer could still alter readings at the official station, though such changes appear unlikely given the latest model agreement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Tokyo on May 16?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on May 16?
17°C 99.8%
13°C or below <1%
14°C <1%
15°C <1%
$90,519 Vol.
$90,519 Vol.
May 16, 2026
13°C or below
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
Yes
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C or higher
No
17°C 99.8%
13°C or below <1%
14°C <1%
15°C <1%
$90,519 Vol.
$90,519 Vol.
May 16, 2026
13°C or below
$5,465 Vol.
No
14°C
$11,240 Vol.
No
15°C
$9,829 Vol.
No
16°C
$4,545 Vol.
No
17°C
$19,152 Vol.
Yes
18°C
$4,117 Vol.
No
19°C
$13,509 Vol.
No
20°C
$14,438 Vol.
No
21°C
$523 Vol.
No
22°C
$779 Vol.
No
23°C or higher
$6,921 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Traders have converged on 17°C as the lowest temperature in Tokyo on May 16 because Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and ensemble model runs consistently projected a minimum near that value under stable high-pressure conditions with light winds and clear skies. Mid-May climatology for the Tokyo region shows typical overnight lows between 14°C and 18°C, and current observational data aligned closely with these expectations, leaving little room for significant deviation. This scientific consensus from official monitoring creates high in the outcome. A sudden shift in steering patterns or an unforecasted marine layer could still alter readings at the official station, though such changes appear unlikely given the latest model agreement.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 13, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$90,519End Date
May 16, 2026Market Opened
May 13, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Traders have converged on 17°C as the lowest temperature in Tokyo on May 16 because Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and ensemble model runs consistently projected a minimum near that value under stable high-pressure conditions with light winds and clear skies. Mid-May climatology for the Tokyo region shows typical overnight lows between 14°C and 18°C, and current observational data aligned closely with these expectations, leaving little room for significant deviation. This scientific consensus from official monitoring creates high in the outcome. A sudden shift in steering patterns or an unforecasted marine layer could still alter readings at the official station, though such changes appear unlikely given the latest model agreement.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$90,519End Date
May 16, 2026Market Opened
May 13, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTTraders have converged on 17°C as the lowest temperature in Tokyo on May 16 because Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and ensemble model runs consistently projected a minimum near that value under stable high-pressure conditions with light winds and clear skies. Mid-May climatology for the Tokyo region shows typical overnight lows between 14°C and 18°C, and current observational data aligned closely with these expectations, leaving little room for significant deviation. This scientific consensus from official monitoring creates high in the outcome. A sudden shift in steering patterns or an unforecasted marine layer could still alter readings at the official station, though such changes appear unlikely given the latest model agreement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions