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Elections·Ethiopia

Next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?

icon for Next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?
Elections·Ethiopia

Next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?

Abiy Ahmed 97.1%

Shimelis Abdisa 1.0%

Gedion Timothewos <1%

Belete Molla <1%

Polymarket

$286,016,605 Vol.

Abiy Ahmed 97.1%

Shimelis Abdisa 1.0%

Gedion Timothewos <1%

Belete Molla <1%

Polymarket

$286,016,605 Vol.

icon for Abiy Ahmed

Abiy Ahmed

$146,254 Vol.

97%

icon for Shimelis Abdisa

Shimelis Abdisa

$41,579,340 Vol.

1%

icon for Gedion Timothewos

Gedion Timothewos

$55,935,035 Vol.

1%

icon for Belete Molla

Belete Molla

$32,289,106 Vol.

1%

icon for Alesa Mengesha

Alesa Mengesha

$13,578,897 Vol.

1%

icon for Demeke Mekonnen

Demeke Mekonnen

$29,327,591 Vol.

1%

icon for Berhanu Nega

Berhanu Nega

$29,704,124 Vol.

<1%

icon for Adanech Abiebie

Adanech Abiebie

$83,456,258 Vol.

<1%

General elections are scheduled to be held in Ethiopia on June 1, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Ethiopia following the 2026 General elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Ethiopia. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Ethiopia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Abiy Ahmed’s commanding 97% market position stems from his Prosperity Party’s landslide victory in Ethiopia’s June 2026 parliamentary elections, securing 438 of 486 contested seats and a clear majority in the House of Peoples’ Representatives that elects the prime minister. Parliament is scheduled to reconvene and reappoint him for another term in early October. This outcome reflects Abiy’s consolidation of power through the ruling party since 2019, despite ongoing regional insurgencies in Amhara and Oromia and postponed voting in parts of Tigray. Recent developments include a September 2026 alliance of seven opposition groups seeking to remove him, though their limited parliamentary presence and the party’s structural dominance limit near-term impact. Shifts could arise from sudden health events, major internal party fractures, or escalated security crises altering parliamentary dynamics before formal selection.

General elections are scheduled to be held in Ethiopia on June 1, 2026.

This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Ethiopia following the 2026 General elections.

To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Ethiopia. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Ethiopia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.General elections are scheduled to be held in Ethiopia on June 1, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Ethiopia following the 2026 General elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Ethiopia. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Ethiopia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$286,016,605
End Date
Jan 1, 2029
Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 5:49 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
General elections are scheduled to be held in Ethiopia on June 1, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Ethiopia following the 2026 General elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Ethiopia. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Ethiopia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Abiy Ahmed’s commanding 97% market position stems from his Prosperity Party’s landslide victory in Ethiopia’s June 2026 parliamentary elections, securing 438 of 486 contested seats and a clear majority in the House of Peoples’ Representatives that elects the prime minister. Parliament is scheduled to reconvene and reappoint him for another term in early October. This outcome reflects Abiy’s consolidation of power through the ruling party since 2019, despite ongoing regional insurgencies in Amhara and Oromia and postponed voting in parts of Tigray. Recent developments include a September 2026 alliance of seven opposition groups seeking to remove him, though their limited parliamentary presence and the party’s structural dominance limit near-term impact. Shifts could arise from sudden health events, major internal party fractures, or escalated security crises altering parliamentary dynamics before formal selection.

General elections are scheduled to be held in Ethiopia on June 1, 2026.

This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Ethiopia following the 2026 General elections.

To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Ethiopia. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Ethiopia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.General elections are scheduled to be held in Ethiopia on June 1, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Ethiopia following the 2026 General elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Ethiopia. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Ethiopia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$286,016,605
End Date
Jan 1, 2029
Market Opened
Apr 27, 2026, 5:49 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Abiy Ahmed" at 97%, followed by "Shimelis Abdisa" at 1%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 97¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 97% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?" has generated $286 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 27, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?" is "Abiy Ahmed" at 97%, meaning the market assigns a 97% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Shimelis Abdisa" at 1%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.