Recent U.S.-brokered attempts at a short-term ceasefire in early May 2026 quickly collapsed amid mutual accusations of violations and continued frontline assaults, highlighting persistent mistrust between Kyiv and Moscow. Russian officials have signaled no urgency to resume full negotiations, reiterating demands for Ukrainian withdrawal from occupied regions as a precondition for any lasting accord, while Ukrainian leaders maintain that territorial integrity remains non-negotiable. Ongoing diplomatic contacts focus mainly on prisoner exchanges and humanitarian issues rather than comprehensive talks, with broader U.S.-mediated efforts stalled by external factors. These developments reinforce trader consensus that a formal peace agreement is unlikely to materialize within the narrow June 30 window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$443,102 Vol.
$443,102 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
$443,102 Vol.
$443,102 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Recent U.S.-brokered attempts at a short-term ceasefire in early May 2026 quickly collapsed amid mutual accusations of violations and continued frontline assaults, highlighting persistent mistrust between Kyiv and Moscow. Russian officials have signaled no urgency to resume full negotiations, reiterating demands for Ukrainian withdrawal from occupied regions as a precondition for any lasting accord, while Ukrainian leaders maintain that territorial integrity remains non-negotiable. Ongoing diplomatic contacts focus mainly on prisoner exchanges and humanitarian issues rather than comprehensive talks, with broader U.S.-mediated efforts stalled by external factors. These developments reinforce trader consensus that a formal peace agreement is unlikely to materialize within the narrow June 30 window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Dec 17, 2025, 5:37 PM ET
Volume
$443,102End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Dec 17, 2025, 5:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Recent U.S.-brokered attempts at a short-term ceasefire in early May 2026 quickly collapsed amid mutual accusations of violations and continued frontline assaults, highlighting persistent mistrust between Kyiv and Moscow. Russian officials have signaled no urgency to resume full negotiations, reiterating demands for Ukrainian withdrawal from occupied regions as a precondition for any lasting accord, while Ukrainian leaders maintain that territorial integrity remains non-negotiable. Ongoing diplomatic contacts focus mainly on prisoner exchanges and humanitarian issues rather than comprehensive talks, with broader U.S.-mediated efforts stalled by external factors. These developments reinforce trader consensus that a formal peace agreement is unlikely to materialize within the narrow June 30 window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$444,842End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Dec 17, 2025, 5:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S.-brokered attempts at a short-term ceasefire in early May 2026 quickly collapsed amid mutual accusations of violations and continued frontline assaults, highlighting persistent mistrust between Kyiv and Moscow. Russian officials have signaled no urgency to resume full negotiations, reiterating demands for Ukrainian withdrawal from occupied regions as a precondition for any lasting accord, while Ukrainian leaders maintain that territorial integrity remains non-negotiable. Ongoing diplomatic contacts focus mainly on prisoner exchanges and humanitarian issues rather than comprehensive talks, with broader U.S.-mediated efforts stalled by external factors. These developments reinforce trader consensus that a formal peace agreement is unlikely to materialize within the narrow June 30 window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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