Ongoing US-Iran negotiations over a nuclear agreement remain stalled amid fundamental disagreements on sequencing and scope, with Washington insisting on immediate limits to uranium enrichment and disposition of Iran's highly enriched uranium stockpile while Tehran seeks sanctions relief and an end to hostilities first. Recent exchanges in early May 2026 produced counterproposals that defer core nuclear issues to a later phase, prompting US officials to describe them as insufficient and Iranian sources to criticize maximalist demands. These dynamics, compounded by deep mutual distrust and the compressed timeline to June 30, underpin trader expectations that a comprehensive deal will not materialize.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedUS-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
$1,859,442 Vol.
$1,859,442 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
$1,859,442 Vol.
$1,859,442 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Ongoing US-Iran negotiations over a nuclear agreement remain stalled amid fundamental disagreements on sequencing and scope, with Washington insisting on immediate limits to uranium enrichment and disposition of Iran's highly enriched uranium stockpile while Tehran seeks sanctions relief and an end to hostilities first. Recent exchanges in early May 2026 produced counterproposals that defer core nuclear issues to a later phase, prompting US officials to describe them as insufficient and Iranian sources to criticize maximalist demands. These dynamics, compounded by deep mutual distrust and the compressed timeline to June 30, underpin trader expectations that a comprehensive deal will not materialize.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Market Opened: Dec 17, 2025, 5:47 PM ET
Volume
$1,859,442End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Dec 17, 2025, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Ongoing US-Iran negotiations over a nuclear agreement remain stalled amid fundamental disagreements on sequencing and scope, with Washington insisting on immediate limits to uranium enrichment and disposition of Iran's highly enriched uranium stockpile while Tehran seeks sanctions relief and an end to hostilities first. Recent exchanges in early May 2026 produced counterproposals that defer core nuclear issues to a later phase, prompting US officials to describe them as insufficient and Iranian sources to criticize maximalist demands. These dynamics, compounded by deep mutual distrust and the compressed timeline to June 30, underpin trader expectations that a comprehensive deal will not materialize.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Volume
$1,859,442End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Dec 17, 2025, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing US-Iran negotiations over a nuclear agreement remain stalled amid fundamental disagreements on sequencing and scope, with Washington insisting on immediate limits to uranium enrichment and disposition of Iran's highly enriched uranium stockpile while Tehran seeks sanctions relief and an end to hostilities first. Recent exchanges in early May 2026 produced counterproposals that defer core nuclear issues to a later phase, prompting US officials to describe them as insufficient and Iranian sources to criticize maximalist demands. These dynamics, compounded by deep mutual distrust and the compressed timeline to June 30, underpin trader expectations that a comprehensive deal will not materialize.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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