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Politics·Coalition

Will Tidö parties win a majority in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections?

icon for Will Tidö parties win a majority in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections?
Politics·Coalition

Will Tidö parties win a majority in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections?

8% chance
Polymarket
NEW
8% chance
Polymarket
NEW
In October 2022, the Swedish political parties Sweden Democrats (SD), Moderate Party (M), Christian Democrats (KD), and Liberals (L) signed the Tidö Agreement (Tidöavtalet) to form a government after the 2022 Swedish parliamentary elections. Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the member parties of the Tidö Agreement (SD, M, KD, and L) win a combined total of 175 seats or more in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If voting in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named parties in the Swedish Parliament (Riksdag). This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).Recent opinion polls ahead of Sweden’s September 13, 2026, Riksdag election show the Tidö bloc—Moderates, Christian Democrats, Liberals, and Sweden Democrats—trailing the Red-Green opposition by roughly 10–13 points, with the governing side at 42–45 percent and the centre-left at 53–55 percent. Statistics Sweden’s June survey and subsequent Novus, Indikator, and Demoskop releases have sustained this gap, reflecting limited movement despite ongoing focus on crime, immigration, and economic issues. The Liberals’ persistently low support near the four-percent threshold further constrains bloc totals, while the Social Democrats remain anchored above 31 percent. These consistent survey trends underpin trader consensus that the Tidö parties face structural barriers to securing the 175 seats required for a parliamentary majority.

In October 2022, the Swedish political parties Sweden Democrats (SD), Moderate Party (M), Christian Democrats (KD), and Liberals (L) signed the Tidö Agreement (Tidöavtalet) to form a government after the 2022 Swedish parliamentary elections.

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the member parties of the Tidö Agreement (SD, M, KD, and L) win a combined total of 175 seats or more in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If voting in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named parties in the Swedish Parliament (Riksdag).

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Volume
$5,115
End Date
Sep 14, 2026
Market Opened
Jun 4, 2026, 10:14 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
In October 2022, the Swedish political parties Sweden Democrats (SD), Moderate Party (M), Christian Democrats (KD), and Liberals (L) signed the Tidö Agreement (Tidöavtalet) to form a government after the 2022 Swedish parliamentary elections. Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the member parties of the Tidö Agreement (SD, M, KD, and L) win a combined total of 175 seats or more in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If voting in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named parties in the Swedish Parliament (Riksdag). This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
In October 2022, the Swedish political parties Sweden Democrats (SD), Moderate Party (M), Christian Democrats (KD), and Liberals (L) signed the Tidö Agreement (Tidöavtalet) to form a government after the 2022 Swedish parliamentary elections. Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the member parties of the Tidö Agreement (SD, M, KD, and L) win a combined total of 175 seats or more in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If voting in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named parties in the Swedish Parliament (Riksdag). This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).Recent opinion polls ahead of Sweden’s September 13, 2026, Riksdag election show the Tidö bloc—Moderates, Christian Democrats, Liberals, and Sweden Democrats—trailing the Red-Green opposition by roughly 10–13 points, with the governing side at 42–45 percent and the centre-left at 53–55 percent. Statistics Sweden’s June survey and subsequent Novus, Indikator, and Demoskop releases have sustained this gap, reflecting limited movement despite ongoing focus on crime, immigration, and economic issues. The Liberals’ persistently low support near the four-percent threshold further constrains bloc totals, while the Social Democrats remain anchored above 31 percent. These consistent survey trends underpin trader consensus that the Tidö parties face structural barriers to securing the 175 seats required for a parliamentary majority.

In October 2022, the Swedish political parties Sweden Democrats (SD), Moderate Party (M), Christian Democrats (KD), and Liberals (L) signed the Tidö Agreement (Tidöavtalet) to form a government after the 2022 Swedish parliamentary elections.

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the member parties of the Tidö Agreement (SD, M, KD, and L) win a combined total of 175 seats or more in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If voting in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named parties in the Swedish Parliament (Riksdag).

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Volume
$5,115
End Date
Sep 14, 2026
Market Opened
Jun 4, 2026, 10:14 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
In October 2022, the Swedish political parties Sweden Democrats (SD), Moderate Party (M), Christian Democrats (KD), and Liberals (L) signed the Tidö Agreement (Tidöavtalet) to form a government after the 2022 Swedish parliamentary elections. Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the member parties of the Tidö Agreement (SD, M, KD, and L) win a combined total of 175 seats or more in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If voting in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named parties in the Swedish Parliament (Riksdag). This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will Tidö parties win a majority in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 8% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 8¢, the market collectively assigns a 8% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Will Tidö parties win a majority in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jun 4, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Will Tidö parties win a majority in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Will Tidö parties win a majority in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections?" is 8% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 8% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Will Tidö parties win a majority in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.