The Tidö parties fell short of a Riksdag majority in the September 13 election, as confirmed by near-complete counts and SVT’s forecast model assigning the opposition bloc a 99.9 percent probability of securing the most seats. Persistent polling deficits throughout 2026 left the governing coalition trailing the combined Social Democrats, Left, Greens, and Centre parties by margins that proved insurmountable even after late adjustments. Final tallies show the Tidö grouping at roughly 173 seats against 176 for the opposition, with Wednesday’s supplementary ballots eliminating any realistic comeback path. Traders price the outcome at 100 percent “No” because the seat arithmetic is now fixed by official results, leaving only negligible procedural or certification variables that historical precedent indicates will not alter the bloc totals.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated<1% chance
$26,193 Vol.
$26,193 Vol.
Sep 13, 2026
<1% chance
$26,193 Vol.
$26,193 Vol.
Sep 13, 2026
In October 2022, the Swedish political parties Sweden Democrats (SD), Moderate Party (M), Christian Democrats (KD), and Liberals (L) signed the Tidö Agreement (Tidöavtalet) to form a government after the 2022 Swedish parliamentary elections.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the member parties of the Tidö Agreement (SD, M, KD, and L) win a combined total of 175 seats or more in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If voting in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named parties in the Swedish Parliament (Riksdag).
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).The Tidö parties fell short of a Riksdag majority in the September 13 election, as confirmed by near-complete counts and SVT’s forecast model assigning the opposition bloc a 99.9 percent probability of securing the most seats. Persistent polling deficits throughout 2026 left the governing coalition trailing the combined Social Democrats, Left, Greens, and Centre parties by margins that proved insurmountable even after late adjustments. Final tallies show the Tidö grouping at roughly 173 seats against 176 for the opposition, with Wednesday’s supplementary ballots eliminating any realistic comeback path. Traders price the outcome at 100 percent “No” because the seat arithmetic is now fixed by official results, leaving only negligible procedural or certification variables that historical precedent indicates will not alter the bloc totals.
In October 2022, the Swedish political parties Sweden Democrats (SD), Moderate Party (M), Christian Democrats (KD), and Liberals (L) signed the Tidö Agreement (Tidöavtalet) to form a government after the 2022 Swedish parliamentary elections.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the member parties of the Tidö Agreement (SD, M, KD, and L) win a combined total of 175 seats or more in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If voting in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named parties in the Swedish Parliament (Riksdag).
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the member parties of the Tidö Agreement (SD, M, KD, and L) win a combined total of 175 seats or more in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If voting in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named parties in the Swedish Parliament (Riksdag).
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Market Opened: Jun 4, 2026, 10:14 AM ET
Volume
$26,193End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Jun 4, 2026, 10:14 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
In October 2022, the Swedish political parties Sweden Democrats (SD), Moderate Party (M), Christian Democrats (KD), and Liberals (L) signed the Tidö Agreement (Tidöavtalet) to form a government after the 2022 Swedish parliamentary elections.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the member parties of the Tidö Agreement (SD, M, KD, and L) win a combined total of 175 seats or more in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If voting in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named parties in the Swedish Parliament (Riksdag).
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).The Tidö parties fell short of a Riksdag majority in the September 13 election, as confirmed by near-complete counts and SVT’s forecast model assigning the opposition bloc a 99.9 percent probability of securing the most seats. Persistent polling deficits throughout 2026 left the governing coalition trailing the combined Social Democrats, Left, Greens, and Centre parties by margins that proved insurmountable even after late adjustments. Final tallies show the Tidö grouping at roughly 173 seats against 176 for the opposition, with Wednesday’s supplementary ballots eliminating any realistic comeback path. Traders price the outcome at 100 percent “No” because the seat arithmetic is now fixed by official results, leaving only negligible procedural or certification variables that historical precedent indicates will not alter the bloc totals.
In October 2022, the Swedish political parties Sweden Democrats (SD), Moderate Party (M), Christian Democrats (KD), and Liberals (L) signed the Tidö Agreement (Tidöavtalet) to form a government after the 2022 Swedish parliamentary elections.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the member parties of the Tidö Agreement (SD, M, KD, and L) win a combined total of 175 seats or more in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If voting in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named parties in the Swedish Parliament (Riksdag).
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the member parties of the Tidö Agreement (SD, M, KD, and L) win a combined total of 175 seats or more in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If voting in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named parties in the Swedish Parliament (Riksdag).
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Volume
$26,193End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Jun 4, 2026, 10:14 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
The Tidö parties fell short of a Riksdag majority in the September 13 election, as confirmed by near-complete counts and SVT’s forecast model assigning the opposition bloc a 99.9 percent probability of securing the most seats. Persistent polling deficits throughout 2026 left the governing coalition trailing the combined Social Democrats, Left, Greens, and Centre parties by margins that proved insurmountable even after late adjustments. Final tallies show the Tidö grouping at roughly 173 seats against 176 for the opposition, with Wednesday’s supplementary ballots eliminating any realistic comeback path. Traders price the outcome at 100 percent “No” because the seat arithmetic is now fixed by official results, leaving only negligible procedural or certification variables that historical precedent indicates will not alter the bloc totals.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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