Official meteorological observations from Dallas Love Field confirm that the daily high temperature on May 15 reached at least 86°F, driving the market-implied probability for this outcome to 100 percent. National Weather Service model runs consistently projected 90–93°F under clear skies and southerly flow of 5–15 mph, aligning with typical May climatology for the region where average highs climb above 85°F. This strong consensus between dynamical models and surface analyses left minimal room for deviation, as even modest errors in boundary-layer mixing or cloud cover would still keep readings above the threshold. The only realistic challenge would require an unanticipated measurement revision at the official station or an extreme localized cooling event not captured by regional guidance—scenarios that historical verification shows occur far less than once per decade.