Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) forecasts confirm a minimum temperature of 15°C for Tokyo on May 14 under partly cloudy skies transitioning to rain later, driving trader consensus to near-certainty on this outcome as reflected in market-implied odds. This positioning stems from high model agreement across JMA's short-range guidance and global ensembles like ECMWF, supported by a stable high-pressure ridge suppressing colder air advection amid typical mid-May climatological lows of 14–18°C at Tokyo's observatory. Overnight observations already approaching this threshold further solidify sentiment. Realistic challenges include unexpected clear skies enhancing radiational cooling to 14°C or prolonged cloud cover preventing the low—though current steering patterns make such shifts unlikely—with final JMA data expected by evening.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วLowest temperature in Tokyo on May 14?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on May 14?
15°C 100.0%
13°C or below <1%
14°C <1%
16°C <1%
$45,016 ปริมาณ
$45,016 ปริมาณ
May 14, 2026
13°C or below
No
14°C
No
15°C
Yes
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C or higher
No
15°C 100.0%
13°C or below <1%
14°C <1%
16°C <1%
$45,016 ปริมาณ
$45,016 ปริมาณ
May 14, 2026
13°C or below
$3,157 ปริมาณ
No
14°C
$2,941 ปริมาณ
No
15°C
$1,150 ปริมาณ
Yes
16°C
$9,271 ปริมาณ
No
17°C
$7,424 ปริมาณ
No
18°C
$14,849 ปริมาณ
No
19°C
$2,411 ปริมาณ
No
20°C
$793 ปริมาณ
No
21°C
$1,337 ปริมาณ
No
22°C
$758 ปริมาณ
No
23°C or higher
$924 ปริมาณ
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) forecasts confirm a minimum temperature of 15°C for Tokyo on May 14 under partly cloudy skies transitioning to rain later, driving trader consensus to near-certainty on this outcome as reflected in market-implied odds. This positioning stems from high model agreement across JMA's short-range guidance and global ensembles like ECMWF, supported by a stable high-pressure ridge suppressing colder air advection amid typical mid-May climatological lows of 14–18°C at Tokyo's observatory. Overnight observations already approaching this threshold further solidify sentiment. Realistic challenges include unexpected clear skies enhancing radiational cooling to 14°C or prolonged cloud cover preventing the low—though current steering patterns make such shifts unlikely—with final JMA data expected by evening.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: May 11, 2026, 6:18 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$45,016วันสิ้นสุด
May 14, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 11, 2026, 6:18 PM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: No
ไม่มีการคัดค้าน
ผลลัพธ์สุดท้าย: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) forecasts confirm a minimum temperature of 15°C for Tokyo on May 14 under partly cloudy skies transitioning to rain later, driving trader consensus to near-certainty on this outcome as reflected in market-implied odds. This positioning stems from high model agreement across JMA's short-range guidance and global ensembles like ECMWF, supported by a stable high-pressure ridge suppressing colder air advection amid typical mid-May climatological lows of 14–18°C at Tokyo's observatory. Overnight observations already approaching this threshold further solidify sentiment. Realistic challenges include unexpected clear skies enhancing radiational cooling to 14°C or prolonged cloud cover preventing the low—though current steering patterns make such shifts unlikely—with final JMA data expected by evening.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$45,016วันสิ้นสุด
May 14, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 11, 2026, 6:18 PM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: No
ไม่มีการคัดค้าน
ผลลัพธ์สุดท้าย: No
Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) forecasts confirm a minimum temperature of 15°C for Tokyo on May 14 under partly cloudy skies transitioning to rain later, driving trader consensus to near-certainty on this outcome as reflected in market-implied odds. This positioning stems from high model agreement across JMA's short-range guidance and global ensembles like ECMWF, supported by a stable high-pressure ridge suppressing colder air advection amid typical mid-May climatological lows of 14–18°C at Tokyo's observatory. Overnight observations already approaching this threshold further solidify sentiment. Realistic challenges include unexpected clear skies enhancing radiational cooling to 14°C or prolonged cloud cover preventing the low—though current steering patterns make such shifts unlikely—with final JMA data expected by evening.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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