Traders overwhelmingly favor a 13°C minimum in Paris on June 14, reflecting consensus across official forecasts from Météo-France and models such as those referenced by AccuWeather and timeanddate.com, which project overnight lows near 12.8–13°C (55°F) under mild, mostly clear conditions with light winds. Daytime highs are expected around 25–26°C, consistent with typical early-summer climatology for the region where average June lows hover near 13°C. This market-implied probability exceeds 99% because multiple independent model runs and observational data show little deviation from that threshold. A realistic challenge would require an unforecasted nocturnal cooling event, such as rapid radiational cooling under unexpectedly clear, calm skies or a sharper-than-expected northerly flow, though current guidance indicates low likelihood of such shifts before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於6月14日巴黎最低溫度?
13°C 99.7%
11°C <1%
10°C <1%
12°C <1%
$12,364 交易量
$12,364 交易量
9°C或以下
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
100%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C或以上
<1%
13°C 99.7%
11°C <1%
10°C <1%
12°C <1%
$12,364 交易量
$12,364 交易量
9°C或以下
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
100%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C或以上
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間: Jun 12, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Traders overwhelmingly favor a 13°C minimum in Paris on June 14, reflecting consensus across official forecasts from Météo-France and models such as those referenced by AccuWeather and timeanddate.com, which project overnight lows near 12.8–13°C (55°F) under mild, mostly clear conditions with light winds. Daytime highs are expected around 25–26°C, consistent with typical early-summer climatology for the region where average June lows hover near 13°C. This market-implied probability exceeds 99% because multiple independent model runs and observational data show little deviation from that threshold. A realistic challenge would require an unforecasted nocturnal cooling event, such as rapid radiational cooling under unexpectedly clear, calm skies or a sharper-than-expected northerly flow, though current guidance indicates low likelihood of such shifts before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions