Democratic incumbent Josh Harder secured a commanding primary victory in June 2026, advancing against Republican John McBride in California's 9th district. Nonpartisan forecasts from Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and others consistently rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting a partisan lean of roughly D+8 and significant overlap with prior Democratic strongholds after Proposition 50 redistricting. Harder's established fundraising, endorsements from labor and environmental groups, and the district's voter registration advantage reinforce trader consensus. A realistic shift would require an unforeseen national Republican wave, major scandal, or health-related withdrawal by the incumbent before November 3, 2026—developments that remain absent from current reporting.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$19,478 交易量
$19,478 交易量
2026-11-02
民主党
94%
共和党
6%
$19,478 交易量
$19,478 交易量
2026-11-02
民主党
$12,470 交易量
94%
共和党
$7,009 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic incumbent Josh Harder secured a commanding primary victory in June 2026, advancing against Republican John McBride in California's 9th district. Nonpartisan forecasts from Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and others consistently rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting a partisan lean of roughly D+8 and significant overlap with prior Democratic strongholds after Proposition 50 redistricting. Harder's established fundraising, endorsements from labor and environmental groups, and the district's voter registration advantage reinforce trader consensus. A realistic shift would require an unforeseen national Republican wave, major scandal, or health-related withdrawal by the incumbent before November 3, 2026—developments that remain absent from current reporting.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
交易量
$19,478结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic incumbent Josh Harder secured a commanding primary victory in June 2026, advancing against Republican John McBride in California's 9th district. Nonpartisan forecasts from Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and others consistently rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting a partisan lean of roughly D+8 and significant overlap with prior Democratic strongholds after Proposition 50 redistricting. Harder's established fundraising, endorsements from labor and environmental groups, and the district's voter registration advantage reinforce trader consensus. A realistic shift would require an unforeseen national Republican wave, major scandal, or health-related withdrawal by the incumbent before November 3, 2026—developments that remain absent from current reporting.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$19,478结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Democratic incumbent Josh Harder secured a commanding primary victory in June 2026, advancing against Republican John McBride in California's 9th district. Nonpartisan forecasts from Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and others consistently rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting a partisan lean of roughly D+8 and significant overlap with prior Democratic strongholds after Proposition 50 redistricting. Harder's established fundraising, endorsements from labor and environmental groups, and the district's voter registration advantage reinforce trader consensus. A realistic shift would require an unforeseen national Republican wave, major scandal, or health-related withdrawal by the incumbent before November 3, 2026—developments that remain absent from current reporting.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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