Florida's 23rd congressional district was redrawn under the 2026 map signed by Governor Ron DeSantis, producing a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+9 and prompting multiple forecasters to rate the seat Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic. Incumbent Democrat Lois Frankel filed to run in the new boundaries, facing a Democratic primary on August 18, 2026, while Republicans field multiple lesser-known candidates without comparable fundraising or name recognition. Traders have priced in these structural advantages, assigning the Democratic Party a 91.5 percent implied probability. A late primary upset, major personal scandal, or unanticipated national political shift could narrow the margin, though such developments remain low-probability given the district's composition and limited Republican infrastructure.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$15,162 交易量
$15,162 交易量
2026-11-04
民主党
92%
共和党
7%
$15,162 交易量
$15,162 交易量
2026-11-04
民主党
$10,500 交易量
92%
共和党
$4,662 交易量
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Florida's 23rd congressional district was redrawn under the 2026 map signed by Governor Ron DeSantis, producing a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+9 and prompting multiple forecasters to rate the seat Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic. Incumbent Democrat Lois Frankel filed to run in the new boundaries, facing a Democratic primary on August 18, 2026, while Republicans field multiple lesser-known candidates without comparable fundraising or name recognition. Traders have priced in these structural advantages, assigning the Democratic Party a 91.5 percent implied probability. A late primary upset, major personal scandal, or unanticipated national political shift could narrow the margin, though such developments remain low-probability given the district's composition and limited Republican infrastructure.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Dec 16, 2025, 11:52 AM ET
交易量
$15,162结束日期
2026-11-04市场开放时间
Dec 16, 2025, 11:52 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Florida's 23rd congressional district was redrawn under the 2026 map signed by Governor Ron DeSantis, producing a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+9 and prompting multiple forecasters to rate the seat Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic. Incumbent Democrat Lois Frankel filed to run in the new boundaries, facing a Democratic primary on August 18, 2026, while Republicans field multiple lesser-known candidates without comparable fundraising or name recognition. Traders have priced in these structural advantages, assigning the Democratic Party a 91.5 percent implied probability. A late primary upset, major personal scandal, or unanticipated national political shift could narrow the margin, though such developments remain low-probability given the district's composition and limited Republican infrastructure.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$15,162结束日期
2026-11-04市场开放时间
Dec 16, 2025, 11:52 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Florida's 23rd congressional district was redrawn under the 2026 map signed by Governor Ron DeSantis, producing a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+9 and prompting multiple forecasters to rate the seat Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic. Incumbent Democrat Lois Frankel filed to run in the new boundaries, facing a Democratic primary on August 18, 2026, while Republicans field multiple lesser-known candidates without comparable fundraising or name recognition. Traders have priced in these structural advantages, assigning the Democratic Party a 91.5 percent implied probability. A late primary upset, major personal scandal, or unanticipated national political shift could narrow the margin, though such developments remain low-probability given the district's composition and limited Republican infrastructure.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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