Recent numerical weather prediction models from the China Meteorological Administration and international ensembles indicate Beijing’s May 17 high will most likely reach 19–20 °C under partly cloudy skies and light southerly flow. These conditions limit daytime heating compared with mid-May climatological averages near 26 °C, keeping stronger warming unlikely. Trader consensus has aligned closely with this guidance, assigning the highest implied probability to 19 °C while assigning only modest odds to 20 °C and sharply lower chances to readings above 21 °C. Updated model runs and official station observations over the next few hours will determine the final recorded maximum and whether any late-day clearing alters the outcome.