**Forecasts for June 15, 2026, indicate a daily high near 30–32°C in Chengdu, consistent with early-summer norms before peak monsoon heating.** Official and model guidance from sources such as AccuWeather and timeanddate project highs of 29–33°C under partly cloudy to overcast skies, with moderate humidity and light winds limiting daytime heating. These conditions reflect typical June climatology, where average maxima hover around 30–31°C and extremes above 35°C remain uncommon before late June. Recent model runs show no significant warming signals or heat-advection patterns, keeping the probability of 33°C or higher low. Traders have priced the 31°C-or-below outcome highest at 67.5% because current consensus data strongly favor this range, with only modest upside risk if afternoon clearing occurs. Updated forecasts issued in the next 12–24 hours will provide the next key data point for resolution.