Incumbent House Majority Leader Steve Scalise's strong reelection bid in the safely Republican Louisiana 1st congressional district, which leans 19 points right of the national average, underpins trader consensus implying 90.5% odds for a Republican winner in the November general election. Recent Supreme Court upholding of the state's congressional map on May 7 bolstered Republican confidence amid ongoing redistricting litigation, while Scalise faces minimal primary opposition from challengers like Randy Arrington ahead of tomorrow's May 16 jungle primary, where a majority triggers outright victory or advances the top two. Democrat Lauren Jewett remains a longshot given historical voting patterns and low Democratic baseline. Potential shifts could arise from a primary upset, Scalise health issues, scandals, or a national Democratic wave altering turnout in this battleground-leaning state.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$34,248 交易量
$34,248 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
91%
民主党
11%
$34,248 交易量
$34,248 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
$16,035 交易量
91%
民主党
$18,213 交易量
11%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent House Majority Leader Steve Scalise's strong reelection bid in the safely Republican Louisiana 1st congressional district, which leans 19 points right of the national average, underpins trader consensus implying 90.5% odds for a Republican winner in the November general election. Recent Supreme Court upholding of the state's congressional map on May 7 bolstered Republican confidence amid ongoing redistricting litigation, while Scalise faces minimal primary opposition from challengers like Randy Arrington ahead of tomorrow's May 16 jungle primary, where a majority triggers outright victory or advances the top two. Democrat Lauren Jewett remains a longshot given historical voting patterns and low Democratic baseline. Potential shifts could arise from a primary upset, Scalise health issues, scandals, or a national Democratic wave altering turnout in this battleground-leaning state.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
交易量
$34,248结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent House Majority Leader Steve Scalise's strong reelection bid in the safely Republican Louisiana 1st congressional district, which leans 19 points right of the national average, underpins trader consensus implying 90.5% odds for a Republican winner in the November general election. Recent Supreme Court upholding of the state's congressional map on May 7 bolstered Republican confidence amid ongoing redistricting litigation, while Scalise faces minimal primary opposition from challengers like Randy Arrington ahead of tomorrow's May 16 jungle primary, where a majority triggers outright victory or advances the top two. Democrat Lauren Jewett remains a longshot given historical voting patterns and low Democratic baseline. Potential shifts could arise from a primary upset, Scalise health issues, scandals, or a national Democratic wave altering turnout in this battleground-leaning state.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$34,248结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent House Majority Leader Steve Scalise's strong reelection bid in the safely Republican Louisiana 1st congressional district, which leans 19 points right of the national average, underpins trader consensus implying 90.5% odds for a Republican winner in the November general election. Recent Supreme Court upholding of the state's congressional map on May 7 bolstered Republican confidence amid ongoing redistricting litigation, while Scalise faces minimal primary opposition from challengers like Randy Arrington ahead of tomorrow's May 16 jungle primary, where a majority triggers outright victory or advances the top two. Democrat Lauren Jewett remains a longshot given historical voting patterns and low Democratic baseline. Potential shifts could arise from a primary upset, Scalise health issues, scandals, or a national Democratic wave altering turnout in this battleground-leaning state.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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