Incumbent Rep. Trent Kelly (R) dominates trader consensus at 94.5% implied probability to win Mississippi's 1st Congressional District general election on November 3, 2026, reflecting the district's R+18 Cook Partisan Voter Index and Kelly's history of 37-46 point victories since 2015. March 10 primaries solidified this, with Kelly advancing unopposed in the Republican contest while Democrat Cliff Johnson, a civil rights lawyer, prevailed 66%-34% in a low-turnout primary against Kelvin Buck. Kelly holds a massive fundraising edge ($827K cash-on-hand vs. Johnson's $65K as of late March), earning Solid Republican ratings from Cook Political Report and others. Scenarios to shift odds include a major Kelly scandal, health issue, or unprecedented Democratic national wave, though structural barriers remain high.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$105,411 交易量
$105,411 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
95%
民主党
5%
$105,411 交易量
$105,411 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
$77,078 交易量
95%
民主党
$28,333 交易量
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MS-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Trent Kelly (R) dominates trader consensus at 94.5% implied probability to win Mississippi's 1st Congressional District general election on November 3, 2026, reflecting the district's R+18 Cook Partisan Voter Index and Kelly's history of 37-46 point victories since 2015. March 10 primaries solidified this, with Kelly advancing unopposed in the Republican contest while Democrat Cliff Johnson, a civil rights lawyer, prevailed 66%-34% in a low-turnout primary against Kelvin Buck. Kelly holds a massive fundraising edge ($827K cash-on-hand vs. Johnson's $65K as of late March), earning Solid Republican ratings from Cook Political Report and others. Scenarios to shift odds include a major Kelly scandal, health issue, or unprecedented Democratic national wave, though structural barriers remain high.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MS-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
交易量
$105,411结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MS-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Trent Kelly (R) dominates trader consensus at 94.5% implied probability to win Mississippi's 1st Congressional District general election on November 3, 2026, reflecting the district's R+18 Cook Partisan Voter Index and Kelly's history of 37-46 point victories since 2015. March 10 primaries solidified this, with Kelly advancing unopposed in the Republican contest while Democrat Cliff Johnson, a civil rights lawyer, prevailed 66%-34% in a low-turnout primary against Kelvin Buck. Kelly holds a massive fundraising edge ($827K cash-on-hand vs. Johnson's $65K as of late March), earning Solid Republican ratings from Cook Political Report and others. Scenarios to shift odds include a major Kelly scandal, health issue, or unprecedented Democratic national wave, though structural barriers remain high.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MS-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$105,411结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Trent Kelly (R) dominates trader consensus at 94.5% implied probability to win Mississippi's 1st Congressional District general election on November 3, 2026, reflecting the district's R+18 Cook Partisan Voter Index and Kelly's history of 37-46 point victories since 2015. March 10 primaries solidified this, with Kelly advancing unopposed in the Republican contest while Democrat Cliff Johnson, a civil rights lawyer, prevailed 66%-34% in a low-turnout primary against Kelvin Buck. Kelly holds a massive fundraising edge ($827K cash-on-hand vs. Johnson's $65K as of late March), earning Solid Republican ratings from Cook Political Report and others. Scenarios to shift odds include a major Kelly scandal, health issue, or unprecedented Democratic national wave, though structural barriers remain high.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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