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Politics·Primaries

AZ-05 Republican Primary Winner

icon for AZ-05 Republican Primary Winner
Politics·Primaries

AZ-05 Republican Primary Winner

Mark Lamb 95.2%

Travis Grantham 2.8%

Jay Feely <1%

Polymarket

$47,624 Vol.

Mark Lamb 95.2%

Travis Grantham 2.8%

Jay Feely <1%

Polymarket

$47,624 Vol.

Mark Lamb

$4,405 Vol.

95%

Travis Grantham

$1,365 Vol.

3%

Jay Feely

$41,854 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Former Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb commands trader consensus at 95% implied probability to win Arizona's 5th Congressional District Republican primary on July 21, driven by his early Trump endorsement in November 2025, consistent 50%+ leads in polls from Noble Predictive Insights and NextGen since October 2025, and strong grassroots fundraising that outpaces rivals like Daniel Keenan. The open seat left by retiring Rep. Andy Biggs has seen the field thin, with state Rep. Travis Grantham suspending his campaign in March for Air National Guard active duty and former NFL kicker Jay Feely switching to AZ-01. Recent PBS interviews, including Keenan's May 7 criticisms of Lamb's election stances, have failed to shift momentum. Late scandals, endorsement shifts, or rival consolidation remain slim upset risks.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$47,624
End Date
Aug 4, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 25, 2025, 5:27 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Former Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb commands trader consensus at 95% implied probability to win Arizona's 5th Congressional District Republican primary on July 21, driven by his early Trump endorsement in November 2025, consistent 50%+ leads in polls from Noble Predictive Insights and NextGen since October 2025, and strong grassroots fundraising that outpaces rivals like Daniel Keenan. The open seat left by retiring Rep. Andy Biggs has seen the field thin, with state Rep. Travis Grantham suspending his campaign in March for Air National Guard active duty and former NFL kicker Jay Feely switching to AZ-01. Recent PBS interviews, including Keenan's May 7 criticisms of Lamb's election stances, have failed to shift momentum. Late scandals, endorsement shifts, or rival consolidation remain slim upset risks.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$47,624
End Date
Aug 4, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 25, 2025, 5:27 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"AZ-05 Republican Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Mark Lamb" at 95%, followed by "Travis Grantham" at 3%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 95¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 95% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "AZ-05 Republican Primary Winner" has generated $47.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 25, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "AZ-05 Republican Primary Winner," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "AZ-05 Republican Primary Winner" is "Mark Lamb" at 95%, meaning the market assigns a 95% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Travis Grantham" at 3%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "AZ-05 Republican Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.