Skip to main content
icon for Guinea-Bissau National People's Assembly Election Winner

Guinea-Bissau National People's Assembly Election Winner

icon for Guinea-Bissau National People's Assembly Election Winner

Guinea-Bissau National People's Assembly Election Winner

PS 5.6%

MUNDO-GB
 4.6%

FLING 4.5%

FREPASNA 3.7%

Polymarket

$156,852 Vol.

PS 5.6%

MUNDO-GB
 4.6%

FLING 4.5%

FREPASNA 3.7%

Polymarket

$156,852 Vol.

PS

$24,851 Vol.

6%

MUNDO-GB


$22,820 Vol.

6%

FLING

$12,886 Vol.

4%

FREPASNA

$26,649 Vol.

4%

PT

$21,794 Vol.

2%

Platforma Reupblicana “Nô Kumpu Guiné”

$47,851 Vol.

31%

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. This market will resolve to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the National People's Assembly of Guinea-Bissau. If voting in the National People's Assembly of Guinea-Bissau election does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will be resolved in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation or name appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the National People's Assembly. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).Guinea-Bissau’s December 2026 legislative election follows the November 2025 coup that annulled prior results and installed a transitional military-led government under General Horta. The vote uses list proportional representation for all 102 National People’s Assembly seats, favoring larger coalitions in a fragmented field. Plataforma Republicana “Nô Kumpu Guiné” leads trader pricing as the broad pro-transitional alliance that consolidated support after major opposition exclusions by the courts. Smaller contenders such as MUNDO-GB, PS, FLING, FREPASNA, and PT compete on narrower regional, ethnic, or policy bases. Key variables that could shift probabilities include further party mergers, new alliances, implementation of the 36% women’s candidate quota, and external pressure for credible polls before the December deadline.

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025.

This market will resolve to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the National People's Assembly of Guinea-Bissau.

If voting in the National People's Assembly of Guinea-Bissau election does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will be resolved in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation or name appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the National People's Assembly.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).
Volume
$156,852
End Date
Nov 23, 2025
Market Opened
Nov 7, 2025, 11:46 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. This market will resolve to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the National People's Assembly of Guinea-Bissau. If voting in the National People's Assembly of Guinea-Bissau election does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will be resolved in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation or name appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the National People's Assembly. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. This market will resolve to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the National People's Assembly of Guinea-Bissau. If voting in the National People's Assembly of Guinea-Bissau election does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will be resolved in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation or name appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the National People's Assembly. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).Guinea-Bissau’s December 2026 legislative election follows the November 2025 coup that annulled prior results and installed a transitional military-led government under General Horta. The vote uses list proportional representation for all 102 National People’s Assembly seats, favoring larger coalitions in a fragmented field. Plataforma Republicana “Nô Kumpu Guiné” leads trader pricing as the broad pro-transitional alliance that consolidated support after major opposition exclusions by the courts. Smaller contenders such as MUNDO-GB, PS, FLING, FREPASNA, and PT compete on narrower regional, ethnic, or policy bases. Key variables that could shift probabilities include further party mergers, new alliances, implementation of the 36% women’s candidate quota, and external pressure for credible polls before the December deadline.

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025.

This market will resolve to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the National People's Assembly of Guinea-Bissau.

If voting in the National People's Assembly of Guinea-Bissau election does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will be resolved in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation or name appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the National People's Assembly.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).
Volume
$156,852
End Date
Nov 23, 2025
Market Opened
Nov 7, 2025, 11:46 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Guinea-Bissau on November 23, 2025. This market will resolve to the political party or coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the National People's Assembly of Guinea-Bissau. If voting in the National People's Assembly of Guinea-Bissau election does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will be resolved in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation or name appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the National People's Assembly. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).

Related

icon for Will Fernando Dias da Costa win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?

Will Fernando Dias da Costa win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?

16%
icon for Will the United Hearts Movement win the most seats in the 2025 Central African Republic National Assembly election?

Will the United Hearts Movement win the most seats in the 2025 Central African Republic National Assembly election?

98%
icon for Will UPND win the most seats in the 2026 Zambia National Assembly Election?

Will UPND win the most seats in the 2026 Zambia National Assembly Election?

97%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Guinea-Bissau National People's Assembly Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Platforma Reupblicana “Nô Kumpu Guiné”" at 31%, followed by "PS" at 6%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 31¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 31% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Guinea-Bissau National People's Assembly Election Winner" has generated $156.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 7, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Guinea-Bissau National People's Assembly Election Winner," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Guinea-Bissau National People's Assembly Election Winner" is "Platforma Reupblicana “Nô Kumpu Guiné”" at 31%, meaning the market assigns a 31% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "PS" at 6%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Guinea-Bissau National People's Assembly Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.