The National Weather Service's latest guidance for Austin projects a high temperature near 91°F on May 14 under mostly sunny skies with light south winds, driving the market's 99.6% implied probability for 82°F or higher as trader consensus aligns with robust agreement across GFS, ECMWF, and other forecast models. This positioning stems from a persistent upper-level high pressure ridge over Texas, which promotes subsidence, clear skies, and warm advection from the Gulf of Mexico, exceeding the climatological normal of 86°F. Recent soundings confirm dry mid-levels minimizing convective threats. Realistic challenges—such as unexpected diurnal cloud development or a subtle shortwave disturbance—remain low probability, with NOAA's afternoon forecast updates offering the final pre-resolution refinements.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Austin on May 14?
Highest temperature in Austin on May 14?
82°F or higher 99.6%
80-81°F <1%
76-77°F <1%
74-75°F <1%
NEW
$81,731 Vol.
NEW
$81,731 Vol.
May 14, 2026
63°F or below
<1%
64-65°F
<1%
66-67°F
<1%
68-69°F
<1%
70-71°F
<1%
72-73°F
<1%
74-75°F
<1%
76-77°F
<1%
78-79°F
<1%
80-81°F
<1%
82°F or higher
100%
82°F or higher 99.6%
80-81°F <1%
76-77°F <1%
74-75°F <1%
NEW
$81,731 Vol.
NEW
$81,731 Vol.
May 14, 2026
63°F or below
$8,142 Vol.
<1%
64-65°F
$3,324 Vol.
<1%
66-67°F
$6,514 Vol.
<1%
68-69°F
$5,391 Vol.
<1%
70-71°F
$6,164 Vol.
<1%
72-73°F
$5,631 Vol.
<1%
74-75°F
$5,532 Vol.
<1%
76-77°F
$6,853 Vol.
<1%
78-79°F
$4,811 Vol.
<1%
80-81°F
$8,819 Vol.
<1%
82°F or higher
$20,551 Vol.
100%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The National Weather Service's latest guidance for Austin projects a high temperature near 91°F on May 14 under mostly sunny skies with light south winds, driving the market's 99.6% implied probability for 82°F or higher as trader consensus aligns with robust agreement across GFS, ECMWF, and other forecast models. This positioning stems from a persistent upper-level high pressure ridge over Texas, which promotes subsidence, clear skies, and warm advection from the Gulf of Mexico, exceeding the climatological normal of 86°F. Recent soundings confirm dry mid-levels minimizing convective threats. Realistic challenges—such as unexpected diurnal cloud development or a subtle shortwave disturbance—remain low probability, with NOAA's afternoon forecast updates offering the final pre-resolution refinements.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 12, 2026, 12:12 AM ET
Volume
$81,731End Date
May 14, 2026Market Opened
May 12, 2026, 12:12 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The National Weather Service's latest guidance for Austin projects a high temperature near 91°F on May 14 under mostly sunny skies with light south winds, driving the market's 99.6% implied probability for 82°F or higher as trader consensus aligns with robust agreement across GFS, ECMWF, and other forecast models. This positioning stems from a persistent upper-level high pressure ridge over Texas, which promotes subsidence, clear skies, and warm advection from the Gulf of Mexico, exceeding the climatological normal of 86°F. Recent soundings confirm dry mid-levels minimizing convective threats. Realistic challenges—such as unexpected diurnal cloud development or a subtle shortwave disturbance—remain low probability, with NOAA's afternoon forecast updates offering the final pre-resolution refinements.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$81,731End Date
May 14, 2026Market Opened
May 12, 2026, 12:12 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...The National Weather Service's latest guidance for Austin projects a high temperature near 91°F on May 14 under mostly sunny skies with light south winds, driving the market's 99.6% implied probability for 82°F or higher as trader consensus aligns with robust agreement across GFS, ECMWF, and other forecast models. This positioning stems from a persistent upper-level high pressure ridge over Texas, which promotes subsidence, clear skies, and warm advection from the Gulf of Mexico, exceeding the climatological normal of 86°F. Recent soundings confirm dry mid-levels minimizing convective threats. Realistic challenges—such as unexpected diurnal cloud development or a subtle shortwave disturbance—remain low probability, with NOAA's afternoon forecast updates offering the final pre-resolution refinements.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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