Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 18°C (33%) and 17°C (28%) for Buenos Aires' highest temperature on May 14, driven by divergent short-range forecasts from global models like ECMWF and GFS, which show ensemble means near 17.5°C amid inherent uncertainty in boundary layer processes and sea breeze effects from the Río de la Plata. The Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) latest guidance projects highs in the 17-19°C range under a stable high-pressure ridge and light southerly winds suppressing stronger diurnal heating, consistent with May's cool-season averages of 18°C but moderated by recent cooler air advection over the Pampas. Key differentiators include potential low-level cloud persistence favoring 17°C versus clearer skies allowing 18°C; watch SMN's midday update and Aeroparque observatory data for resolution, as urban heat island effects could tip the balance by 1°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Buenos Aires on May 14?
Highest temperature in Buenos Aires on May 14?
18°C 37%
17°C 33%
19°C 15%
16°C 12.3%
13°C or below
1%
14°C
1%
15°C
3%
16°C
12%
17°C
33%
18°C
37%
19°C
15%
20°C
4%
21°C
1%
22°C
1%
23°C or higher
<1%
18°C 37%
17°C 33%
19°C 15%
16°C 12.3%
13°C or below
1%
14°C
1%
15°C
3%
16°C
12%
17°C
33%
18°C
37%
19°C
15%
20°C
4%
21°C
1%
22°C
1%
23°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 12, 2026, 12:16 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 18°C (33%) and 17°C (28%) for Buenos Aires' highest temperature on May 14, driven by divergent short-range forecasts from global models like ECMWF and GFS, which show ensemble means near 17.5°C amid inherent uncertainty in boundary layer processes and sea breeze effects from the Río de la Plata. The Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) latest guidance projects highs in the 17-19°C range under a stable high-pressure ridge and light southerly winds suppressing stronger diurnal heating, consistent with May's cool-season averages of 18°C but moderated by recent cooler air advection over the Pampas. Key differentiators include potential low-level cloud persistence favoring 17°C versus clearer skies allowing 18°C; watch SMN's midday update and Aeroparque observatory data for resolution, as urban heat island effects could tip the balance by 1°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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