Recent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and German Weather Service indicate a daily maximum near 22°C in Munich on June 14, 2026, driven by moderate westerly flow, partial cloud cover, and limited daytime heating under stable high pressure. These conditions align with climatological June averages of 21–23°C and explain why market-implied odds concentrate heavily on 22°C (49%) and 21°C (35.5%), with 23°C at just 10.5%. Model consensus shows minimal spread due to suppressed instability and no strong advection of warmer air, though minor shifts in cloud cover or wind could nudge the observed high within the narrow 21–23°C band before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於6月14日慕尼黑最高溫度?
22°C 45%
21°C 43%
23°C 11%
20°C 6.3%
$51,921 交易量
$51,921 交易量
16°C或以下
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
6%
21°C
43%
22°C
45%
23°C
11%
24°C
1%
25°C
<1%
26°C或更高
<1%
22°C 45%
21°C 43%
23°C 11%
20°C 6.3%
$51,921 交易量
$51,921 交易量
16°C或以下
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
6%
21°C
43%
22°C
45%
23°C
11%
24°C
1%
25°C
<1%
26°C或更高
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間: Jun 12, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and German Weather Service indicate a daily maximum near 22°C in Munich on June 14, 2026, driven by moderate westerly flow, partial cloud cover, and limited daytime heating under stable high pressure. These conditions align with climatological June averages of 21–23°C and explain why market-implied odds concentrate heavily on 22°C (49%) and 21°C (35.5%), with 23°C at just 10.5%. Model consensus shows minimal spread due to suppressed instability and no strong advection of warmer air, though minor shifts in cloud cover or wind could nudge the observed high within the narrow 21–23°C band before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions