Latest National Weather Service model ensembles converge on a peak temperature of 85–88°F at LaGuardia Airport, the official observation site for this market, with minor spreads among the GFS, ECMWF, and NAM solutions driven by differences in afternoon boundary-layer mixing depth and the precise timing of maximum solar heating. These subtle variations in vertical mixing and wind patterns keep the 86–87°F and 88–89°F outcomes nearly tied in trader sentiment. Historical May climatology places average highs near 76°F, so today’s above-normal readings reflect a brief warm advection episode that models show will peak before sunset. Resolution hinges on the single highest hourly reading reported by 11:59 p.m. ET, leaving traders focused on any late-day forecast adjustments from updated model runs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in NYC on May 17?
Highest temperature in NYC on May 17?
86-87°F 34%
88-89°F 29%
84-85°F 19%
90-91°F 12.9%
$41,928 Vol.
$41,928 Vol.
May 17, 2026
79°F or below
<1%
80-81°F
<1%
82-83°F
4%
84-85°F
19%
86-87°F
34%
88-89°F
29%
90-91°F
13%
92-93°F
2%
94-95°F
<1%
96-97°F
<1%
98°F or higher
<1%
86-87°F 34%
88-89°F 29%
84-85°F 19%
90-91°F 12.9%
$41,928 Vol.
$41,928 Vol.
May 17, 2026
79°F or below
$9,159 Vol.
<1%
80-81°F
$6,005 Vol.
<1%
82-83°F
$3,774 Vol.
4%
84-85°F
$4,153 Vol.
19%
86-87°F
$4,622 Vol.
34%
88-89°F
$2,181 Vol.
29%
90-91°F
$2,532 Vol.
13%
92-93°F
$1,727 Vol.
2%
94-95°F
$3,055 Vol.
<1%
96-97°F
$2,634 Vol.
<1%
98°F or higher
$2,134 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest National Weather Service model ensembles converge on a peak temperature of 85–88°F at LaGuardia Airport, the official observation site for this market, with minor spreads among the GFS, ECMWF, and NAM solutions driven by differences in afternoon boundary-layer mixing depth and the precise timing of maximum solar heating. These subtle variations in vertical mixing and wind patterns keep the 86–87°F and 88–89°F outcomes nearly tied in trader sentiment. Historical May climatology places average highs near 76°F, so today’s above-normal readings reflect a brief warm advection episode that models show will peak before sunset. Resolution hinges on the single highest hourly reading reported by 11:59 p.m. ET, leaving traders focused on any late-day forecast adjustments from updated model runs.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 15, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$41,928End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest National Weather Service model ensembles converge on a peak temperature of 85–88°F at LaGuardia Airport, the official observation site for this market, with minor spreads among the GFS, ECMWF, and NAM solutions driven by differences in afternoon boundary-layer mixing depth and the precise timing of maximum solar heating. These subtle variations in vertical mixing and wind patterns keep the 86–87°F and 88–89°F outcomes nearly tied in trader sentiment. Historical May climatology places average highs near 76°F, so today’s above-normal readings reflect a brief warm advection episode that models show will peak before sunset. Resolution hinges on the single highest hourly reading reported by 11:59 p.m. ET, leaving traders focused on any late-day forecast adjustments from updated model runs.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$41,928End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGALatest National Weather Service model ensembles converge on a peak temperature of 85–88°F at LaGuardia Airport, the official observation site for this market, with minor spreads among the GFS, ECMWF, and NAM solutions driven by differences in afternoon boundary-layer mixing depth and the precise timing of maximum solar heating. These subtle variations in vertical mixing and wind patterns keep the 86–87°F and 88–89°F outcomes nearly tied in trader sentiment. Historical May climatology places average highs near 76°F, so today’s above-normal readings reflect a brief warm advection episode that models show will peak before sunset. Resolution hinges on the single highest hourly reading reported by 11:59 p.m. ET, leaving traders focused on any late-day forecast adjustments from updated model runs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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