National Weather Service model ensembles currently converge on a peak temperature of 85–88°F at LaGuardia Airport, the official resolution site for this market, under mostly clear skies that enhance solar insolation and afternoon surface heating. Subtle differences in boundary-layer mixing depth and the precise timing of maximum insolation among the GFS, ECMWF, and NAM runs create the tight spread between the leading 88–89°F (38.5%) and 86–87°F (33.5%) outcomes, while lower probabilities for 90°F-plus reflect limited potential for stronger warming. These forecasts align with typical mid-May climatology for the New York area, where diurnal heating peaks under high pressure but remains sensitive to small changes in wind and cloud cover before resolution later today.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in NYC on May 17?
Highest temperature in NYC on May 17?
88-89°F 39%
86-87°F 34%
90-91°F 16.4%
84-85°F 13%
$51,627 Vol.
$51,627 Vol.
May 17, 2026
79°F or below
<1%
80-81°F
<1%
82-83°F
1%
84-85°F
13%
86-87°F
34%
88-89°F
39%
90-91°F
16%
92-93°F
2%
94-95°F
<1%
96-97°F
<1%
98°F or higher
<1%
88-89°F 39%
86-87°F 34%
90-91°F 16.4%
84-85°F 13%
$51,627 Vol.
$51,627 Vol.
May 17, 2026
79°F or below
$9,189 Vol.
<1%
80-81°F
$6,488 Vol.
<1%
82-83°F
$4,845 Vol.
1%
84-85°F
$5,176 Vol.
13%
86-87°F
$5,727 Vol.
34%
88-89°F
$3,332 Vol.
39%
90-91°F
$4,050 Vol.
16%
92-93°F
$2,986 Vol.
2%
94-95°F
$3,643 Vol.
<1%
96-97°F
$3,527 Vol.
<1%
98°F or higher
$3,054 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.National Weather Service model ensembles currently converge on a peak temperature of 85–88°F at LaGuardia Airport, the official resolution site for this market, under mostly clear skies that enhance solar insolation and afternoon surface heating. Subtle differences in boundary-layer mixing depth and the precise timing of maximum insolation among the GFS, ECMWF, and NAM runs create the tight spread between the leading 88–89°F (38.5%) and 86–87°F (33.5%) outcomes, while lower probabilities for 90°F-plus reflect limited potential for stronger warming. These forecasts align with typical mid-May climatology for the New York area, where diurnal heating peaks under high pressure but remains sensitive to small changes in wind and cloud cover before resolution later today.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 15, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$51,627End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.National Weather Service model ensembles currently converge on a peak temperature of 85–88°F at LaGuardia Airport, the official resolution site for this market, under mostly clear skies that enhance solar insolation and afternoon surface heating. Subtle differences in boundary-layer mixing depth and the precise timing of maximum insolation among the GFS, ECMWF, and NAM runs create the tight spread between the leading 88–89°F (38.5%) and 86–87°F (33.5%) outcomes, while lower probabilities for 90°F-plus reflect limited potential for stronger warming. These forecasts align with typical mid-May climatology for the New York area, where diurnal heating peaks under high pressure but remains sensitive to small changes in wind and cloud cover before resolution later today.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$51,627End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGANational Weather Service model ensembles currently converge on a peak temperature of 85–88°F at LaGuardia Airport, the official resolution site for this market, under mostly clear skies that enhance solar insolation and afternoon surface heating. Subtle differences in boundary-layer mixing depth and the precise timing of maximum insolation among the GFS, ECMWF, and NAM runs create the tight spread between the leading 88–89°F (38.5%) and 86–87°F (33.5%) outcomes, while lower probabilities for 90°F-plus reflect limited potential for stronger warming. These forecasts align with typical mid-May climatology for the New York area, where diurnal heating peaks under high pressure but remains sensitive to small changes in wind and cloud cover before resolution later today.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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