National Weather Service model ensembles currently converge on a peak temperature of 85–88 °F at LaGuardia Airport under mostly clear skies that maximize solar insolation and surface heating. Subtle spreads among the GFS, ECMWF, and NAM solutions stem from differences in afternoon boundary-layer mixing depth and the precise timing of maximum insolation, keeping the 86–87 °F and 88–89 °F outcomes closely matched. These near-term factors outweigh broader May climatological averages, with traders weighting the latest model runs most heavily ahead of official observation resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in NYC on May 17?
88-89°F 39%
86-87°F 34%
90-91°F 16.6%
84-85°F 12%
$51,620 Vol.
$51,620 Vol.
79°F or below
<1%
80-81°F
<1%
82-83°F
1%
84-85°F
12%
86-87°F
34%
88-89°F
39%
90-91°F
17%
92-93°F
2%
94-95°F
<1%
96-97°F
<1%
98°F or higher
<1%
88-89°F 39%
86-87°F 34%
90-91°F 16.6%
84-85°F 12%
$51,620 Vol.
$51,620 Vol.
79°F or below
<1%
80-81°F
<1%
82-83°F
1%
84-85°F
12%
86-87°F
34%
88-89°F
39%
90-91°F
17%
92-93°F
2%
94-95°F
<1%
96-97°F
<1%
98°F or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 15, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAThe resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGANational Weather Service model ensembles currently converge on a peak temperature of 85–88 °F at LaGuardia Airport under mostly clear skies that maximize solar insolation and surface heating. Subtle spreads among the GFS, ECMWF, and NAM solutions stem from differences in afternoon boundary-layer mixing depth and the precise timing of maximum insolation, keeping the 86–87 °F and 88–89 °F outcomes closely matched. These near-term factors outweigh broader May climatological averages, with traders weighting the latest model runs most heavily ahead of official observation resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated



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