Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a high of 57°F or below in Seattle on May 15 (95.6% implied probability), anchored by the National Weather Service's latest forecast projecting a maximum near 56°F under mostly cloudy skies, south-southwest winds of 10-15 mph, and a 40% chance of rain. This cool outlook stems from persistent onshore flow ushering moist marine air, suppressing temperatures well below the mid-May climatological average of 63-65°F amid lingering low-level clouds and instability. Model ensembles like GFS and ECMWF show tight agreement on limited daytime heating. Realistic challenges include unexpected afternoon clearing or a wind shift reducing cloud cover, potentially nudging highs into the upper 50s, with NWS updates expected overnight as new observations refine guidance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Seattle on May 15?
Highest temperature in Seattle on May 15?
57°F or below 95.5%
58-59°F 1.6%
60-61°F <1%
62-63°F <1%
NEW
$19,794 Vol.
NEW
$19,794 Vol.
May 15, 2026
57°F or below
96%
58-59°F
2%
60-61°F
1%
62-63°F
<1%
64-65°F
<1%
66-67°F
<1%
68-69°F
<1%
70-71°F
<1%
72-73°F
<1%
74-75°F
<1%
76°F or higher
<1%
57°F or below 95.5%
58-59°F 1.6%
60-61°F <1%
62-63°F <1%
NEW
$19,794 Vol.
NEW
$19,794 Vol.
May 15, 2026
57°F or below
$2,530 Vol.
96%
58-59°F
$3,545 Vol.
2%
60-61°F
$2,688 Vol.
1%
62-63°F
$1,432 Vol.
<1%
64-65°F
$1,286 Vol.
<1%
66-67°F
$1,795 Vol.
<1%
68-69°F
$1,647 Vol.
<1%
70-71°F
$1,373 Vol.
<1%
72-73°F
$1,109 Vol.
<1%
74-75°F
$1,499 Vol.
<1%
76°F or higher
$891 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a high of 57°F or below in Seattle on May 15 (95.6% implied probability), anchored by the National Weather Service's latest forecast projecting a maximum near 56°F under mostly cloudy skies, south-southwest winds of 10-15 mph, and a 40% chance of rain. This cool outlook stems from persistent onshore flow ushering moist marine air, suppressing temperatures well below the mid-May climatological average of 63-65°F amid lingering low-level clouds and instability. Model ensembles like GFS and ECMWF show tight agreement on limited daytime heating. Realistic challenges include unexpected afternoon clearing or a wind shift reducing cloud cover, potentially nudging highs into the upper 50s, with NWS updates expected overnight as new observations refine guidance.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 13, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volume
$19,794End Date
May 15, 2026Market Opened
May 13, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a high of 57°F or below in Seattle on May 15 (95.6% implied probability), anchored by the National Weather Service's latest forecast projecting a maximum near 56°F under mostly cloudy skies, south-southwest winds of 10-15 mph, and a 40% chance of rain. This cool outlook stems from persistent onshore flow ushering moist marine air, suppressing temperatures well below the mid-May climatological average of 63-65°F amid lingering low-level clouds and instability. Model ensembles like GFS and ECMWF show tight agreement on limited daytime heating. Realistic challenges include unexpected afternoon clearing or a wind shift reducing cloud cover, potentially nudging highs into the upper 50s, with NWS updates expected overnight as new observations refine guidance.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$19,794End Date
May 15, 2026Market Opened
May 13, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a high of 57°F or below in Seattle on May 15 (95.6% implied probability), anchored by the National Weather Service's latest forecast projecting a maximum near 56°F under mostly cloudy skies, south-southwest winds of 10-15 mph, and a 40% chance of rain. This cool outlook stems from persistent onshore flow ushering moist marine air, suppressing temperatures well below the mid-May climatological average of 63-65°F amid lingering low-level clouds and instability. Model ensembles like GFS and ECMWF show tight agreement on limited daytime heating. Realistic challenges include unexpected afternoon clearing or a wind shift reducing cloud cover, potentially nudging highs into the upper 50s, with NWS updates expected overnight as new observations refine guidance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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