Current forecasts from regional meteorological models point to a daily high of 34°C in Tel Aviv as the most probable outcome, consistent with the market’s leading 76% implied probability. Stable atmospheric conditions over the eastern Mediterranean, including limited cloud cover and moderate southerly flow, are supporting daytime heating without significant cooling influences. This aligns with typical late-spring patterns, where peak temperatures often exceed seasonal averages due to clear skies and solar insolation. Any late-day model adjustments or unexpected wind shifts could push readings to 35°C or higher, the secondary outcome at 15.3%, while lower thresholds remain improbable given the established warming trend.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tel Aviv on May 17?
Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on May 17?
34°C 86%
35°C or higher 26.6%
27°C <1%
25°C or below <1%
$62,182 Vol.
$62,182 Vol.
May 17, 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C
82%
35°C or higher
27%
34°C 86%
35°C or higher 26.6%
27°C <1%
25°C or below <1%
$62,182 Vol.
$62,182 Vol.
May 17, 2026
25°C or below
$10,442 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$2,768 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$4,275 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$2,381 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$2,721 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$4,265 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$3,965 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$8,782 Vol.
<1%
33°C
$7,773 Vol.
<1%
34°C
$6,035 Vol.
82%
35°C or higher
$8,994 Vol.
27%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current forecasts from regional meteorological models point to a daily high of 34°C in Tel Aviv as the most probable outcome, consistent with the market’s leading 76% implied probability. Stable atmospheric conditions over the eastern Mediterranean, including limited cloud cover and moderate southerly flow, are supporting daytime heating without significant cooling influences. This aligns with typical late-spring patterns, where peak temperatures often exceed seasonal averages due to clear skies and solar insolation. Any late-day model adjustments or unexpected wind shifts could push readings to 35°C or higher, the secondary outcome at 15.3%, while lower thresholds remain improbable given the established warming trend.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$62,182End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current forecasts from regional meteorological models point to a daily high of 34°C in Tel Aviv as the most probable outcome, consistent with the market’s leading 76% implied probability. Stable atmospheric conditions over the eastern Mediterranean, including limited cloud cover and moderate southerly flow, are supporting daytime heating without significant cooling influences. This aligns with typical late-spring patterns, where peak temperatures often exceed seasonal averages due to clear skies and solar insolation. Any late-day model adjustments or unexpected wind shifts could push readings to 35°C or higher, the secondary outcome at 15.3%, while lower thresholds remain improbable given the established warming trend.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$62,182End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ETCurrent forecasts from regional meteorological models point to a daily high of 34°C in Tel Aviv as the most probable outcome, consistent with the market’s leading 76% implied probability. Stable atmospheric conditions over the eastern Mediterranean, including limited cloud cover and moderate southerly flow, are supporting daytime heating without significant cooling influences. This aligns with typical late-spring patterns, where peak temperatures often exceed seasonal averages due to clear skies and solar insolation. Any late-day model adjustments or unexpected wind shifts could push readings to 35°C or higher, the secondary outcome at 15.3%, while lower thresholds remain improbable given the established warming trend.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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