Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 24°C (35.5%) and 25°C (35.5%) as Tokyo's highest temperature on May 14, driven by the latest Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) forecast issued May 13 morning—projecting mid-20s°C peaks under a stabilizing high-pressure ridge with southerly flow—and aligned ECMWF/GFS ensemble means around 24-25°C. Differentiating factors include subtle model spread on afternoon boundary layer mixing and insolation: clearer skies with minimal sea breeze penetration could boost urban heat island effects to 25°C, while patchy clouds or stronger onshore flow cap warming at 24°C. Recent days hit near 25-26°C highs amid warming May trends above the 23.5°C climatological normal; watch JMA's afternoon update and evening model runs for refinements ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tokyo on May 14?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 14?
25°C 32%
24°C 30%
23°C 22%
26°C 12%
NEW
$33,449 Vol.
NEW
$33,449 Vol.
May 14, 2026
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
8%
23°C
22%
24°C
30%
25°C
32%
26°C
12%
27°C or higher
3%
25°C 32%
24°C 30%
23°C 22%
26°C 12%
NEW
$33,449 Vol.
NEW
$33,449 Vol.
May 14, 2026
19°C
$1,433 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$4,639 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$3,501 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$4,690 Vol.
8%
23°C
$2,996 Vol.
22%
24°C
$3,087 Vol.
30%
25°C
$2,767 Vol.
32%
26°C
$2,840 Vol.
12%
27°C or higher
$3,494 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 24°C (35.5%) and 25°C (35.5%) as Tokyo's highest temperature on May 14, driven by the latest Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) forecast issued May 13 morning—projecting mid-20s°C peaks under a stabilizing high-pressure ridge with southerly flow—and aligned ECMWF/GFS ensemble means around 24-25°C. Differentiating factors include subtle model spread on afternoon boundary layer mixing and insolation: clearer skies with minimal sea breeze penetration could boost urban heat island effects to 25°C, while patchy clouds or stronger onshore flow cap warming at 24°C. Recent days hit near 25-26°C highs amid warming May trends above the 23.5°C climatological normal; watch JMA's afternoon update and evening model runs for refinements ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 12, 2026, 12:47 AM ET
Volume
$33,449End Date
May 14, 2026Market Opened
May 12, 2026, 12:47 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 24°C (35.5%) and 25°C (35.5%) as Tokyo's highest temperature on May 14, driven by the latest Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) forecast issued May 13 morning—projecting mid-20s°C peaks under a stabilizing high-pressure ridge with southerly flow—and aligned ECMWF/GFS ensemble means around 24-25°C. Differentiating factors include subtle model spread on afternoon boundary layer mixing and insolation: clearer skies with minimal sea breeze penetration could boost urban heat island effects to 25°C, while patchy clouds or stronger onshore flow cap warming at 24°C. Recent days hit near 25-26°C highs amid warming May trends above the 23.5°C climatological normal; watch JMA's afternoon update and evening model runs for refinements ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$33,449End Date
May 14, 2026Market Opened
May 12, 2026, 12:47 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 24°C (35.5%) and 25°C (35.5%) as Tokyo's highest temperature on May 14, driven by the latest Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) forecast issued May 13 morning—projecting mid-20s°C peaks under a stabilizing high-pressure ridge with southerly flow—and aligned ECMWF/GFS ensemble means around 24-25°C. Differentiating factors include subtle model spread on afternoon boundary layer mixing and insolation: clearer skies with minimal sea breeze penetration could boost urban heat island effects to 25°C, while patchy clouds or stronger onshore flow cap warming at 24°C. Recent days hit near 25-26°C highs amid warming May trends above the 23.5°C climatological normal; watch JMA's afternoon update and evening model runs for refinements ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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