Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 18°C (40.5%) and 19°C (31.0%) as Warsaw's highest temperature on May 14, reflecting the latest IMGW hourly forecasts showing peak afternoon readings around 19.5°C amid partly cloudy conditions and light winds. This positioning stems from recent model runs, including IMGW updates, indicating southerly flow bringing mild air masses after cooler midweek lows near 13°C on May 12, with boundary layer warming limited by potential overcast skies or late-day sprinkles as seen in ensemble spreads from ECMWF analogs. Differentiating factors include precise timing of peak insolation versus convective showers—favoring 18°C if clouds thicken post-3 p.m., or 19°C with clearer skies—and slight model divergences on 850 hPa temperatures. New IMGW guidance expected May 13 could refine this uncertainty.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Warsaw on May 14?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on May 14?
18°C 43%
19°C 34%
17°C 22%
20°C 3.5%
NEW
$10,498 Vol.
NEW
$10,498 Vol.
May 14, 2026
13°C or below
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
1%
16°C
3%
17°C
22%
18°C
43%
19°C
34%
20°C
4%
21°C
1%
22°C
1%
23°C or higher
1%
18°C 43%
19°C 34%
17°C 22%
20°C 3.5%
NEW
$10,498 Vol.
NEW
$10,498 Vol.
May 14, 2026
13°C or below
$768 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$920 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$1,132 Vol.
1%
16°C
$1,041 Vol.
3%
17°C
$1,027 Vol.
22%
18°C
$1,270 Vol.
43%
19°C
$914 Vol.
34%
20°C
$1,006 Vol.
4%
21°C
$460 Vol.
1%
22°C
$1,379 Vol.
1%
23°C or higher
$631 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 18°C (40.5%) and 19°C (31.0%) as Warsaw's highest temperature on May 14, reflecting the latest IMGW hourly forecasts showing peak afternoon readings around 19.5°C amid partly cloudy conditions and light winds. This positioning stems from recent model runs, including IMGW updates, indicating southerly flow bringing mild air masses after cooler midweek lows near 13°C on May 12, with boundary layer warming limited by potential overcast skies or late-day sprinkles as seen in ensemble spreads from ECMWF analogs. Differentiating factors include precise timing of peak insolation versus convective showers—favoring 18°C if clouds thicken post-3 p.m., or 19°C with clearer skies—and slight model divergences on 850 hPa temperatures. New IMGW guidance expected May 13 could refine this uncertainty.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 12, 2026, 12:19 AM ET
Volume
$10,498End Date
May 14, 2026Market Opened
May 12, 2026, 12:19 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 18°C (40.5%) and 19°C (31.0%) as Warsaw's highest temperature on May 14, reflecting the latest IMGW hourly forecasts showing peak afternoon readings around 19.5°C amid partly cloudy conditions and light winds. This positioning stems from recent model runs, including IMGW updates, indicating southerly flow bringing mild air masses after cooler midweek lows near 13°C on May 12, with boundary layer warming limited by potential overcast skies or late-day sprinkles as seen in ensemble spreads from ECMWF analogs. Differentiating factors include precise timing of peak insolation versus convective showers—favoring 18°C if clouds thicken post-3 p.m., or 19°C with clearer skies—and slight model divergences on 850 hPa temperatures. New IMGW guidance expected May 13 could refine this uncertainty.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$10,498End Date
May 14, 2026Market Opened
May 12, 2026, 12:19 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 18°C (40.5%) and 19°C (31.0%) as Warsaw's highest temperature on May 14, reflecting the latest IMGW hourly forecasts showing peak afternoon readings around 19.5°C amid partly cloudy conditions and light winds. This positioning stems from recent model runs, including IMGW updates, indicating southerly flow bringing mild air masses after cooler midweek lows near 13°C on May 12, with boundary layer warming limited by potential overcast skies or late-day sprinkles as seen in ensemble spreads from ECMWF analogs. Differentiating factors include precise timing of peak insolation versus convective showers—favoring 18°C if clouds thicken post-3 p.m., or 19°C with clearer skies—and slight model divergences on 850 hPa temperatures. New IMGW guidance expected May 13 could refine this uncertainty.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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