USGS data records five magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes worldwide from January 1 through May 13, 2026—including a M7.1 near Sabah, Malaysia on February 22, M7.5 off Tonga on March 24, and M7.4s near Indonesia (April 1) and Japan (April 20)—slightly above the historical average of about 1.25 events per month driven by subduction zones along the Pacific Ring of Fire. This tally positions the 8+ outcome at 80.5% implied probability, as trader consensus anticipates 3–4 more in the remaining 6.5 weeks per long-term seismicity rates, while 7 at 18.9% reflects Poisson-distributed uncertainty in great earthquake occurrence. No events in early May signal typical variability; continuous USGS catalog updates will refine monitoring through June 30 resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many 7.0 or above earthquakes by June 30?
How many 7.0 or above earthquakes by June 30?
$1,852,641 Vol.
$1,852,641 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
7
19%
8+
81%
$1,852,641 Vol.
$1,852,641 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
7
$288,167 Vol.
19%
8+
$550,890 Vol.
81%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.USGS data records five magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes worldwide from January 1 through May 13, 2026—including a M7.1 near Sabah, Malaysia on February 22, M7.5 off Tonga on March 24, and M7.4s near Indonesia (April 1) and Japan (April 20)—slightly above the historical average of about 1.25 events per month driven by subduction zones along the Pacific Ring of Fire. This tally positions the 8+ outcome at 80.5% implied probability, as trader consensus anticipates 3–4 more in the remaining 6.5 weeks per long-term seismicity rates, while 7 at 18.9% reflects Poisson-distributed uncertainty in great earthquake occurrence. No events in early May signal typical variability; continuous USGS catalog updates will refine monitoring through June 30 resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Market Opened: Dec 4, 2025, 3:15 PM ET
Volume
$1,852,641End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Dec 4, 2025, 3:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.USGS data records five magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes worldwide from January 1 through May 13, 2026—including a M7.1 near Sabah, Malaysia on February 22, M7.5 off Tonga on March 24, and M7.4s near Indonesia (April 1) and Japan (April 20)—slightly above the historical average of about 1.25 events per month driven by subduction zones along the Pacific Ring of Fire. This tally positions the 8+ outcome at 80.5% implied probability, as trader consensus anticipates 3–4 more in the remaining 6.5 weeks per long-term seismicity rates, while 7 at 18.9% reflects Poisson-distributed uncertainty in great earthquake occurrence. No events in early May signal typical variability; continuous USGS catalog updates will refine monitoring through June 30 resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Volume
$1,852,641End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Dec 4, 2025, 3:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...USGS data records five magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes worldwide from January 1 through May 13, 2026—including a M7.1 near Sabah, Malaysia on February 22, M7.5 off Tonga on March 24, and M7.4s near Indonesia (April 1) and Japan (April 20)—slightly above the historical average of about 1.25 events per month driven by subduction zones along the Pacific Ring of Fire. This tally positions the 8+ outcome at 80.5% implied probability, as trader consensus anticipates 3–4 more in the remaining 6.5 weeks per long-term seismicity rates, while 7 at 18.9% reflects Poisson-distributed uncertainty in great earthquake occurrence. No events in early May signal typical variability; continuous USGS catalog updates will refine monitoring through June 30 resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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