The primary driver behind low market-implied odds of federal charges against Jerome Powell is the April 2026 closure of the Department of Justice criminal probe into his June 2025 congressional testimony on the Federal Reserve’s $2.5 billion headquarters renovation, which yielded no indictment or evidence of wrongdoing. Traders price in the absence of ongoing exposure following the probe’s termination, Powell’s May 2026 transition from Fed Chair to governor through January 2028, and institutional norms historically shielding central bank officials from politically motivated actions. With the investigation resolved months ago and no new regulatory filings or executive actions reported as of mid-August 2026, forward-looking probabilities remain anchored to verified outcomes rather than speculation, though tail risks could emerge from unforeseen developments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$318,661 Vol.

December 31, 2026
4%
$318,661 Vol.

December 31, 2026
4%
For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Jun 28, 2026, 5:15 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...The primary driver behind low market-implied odds of federal charges against Jerome Powell is the April 2026 closure of the Department of Justice criminal probe into his June 2025 congressional testimony on the Federal Reserve’s $2.5 billion headquarters renovation, which yielded no indictment or evidence of wrongdoing. Traders price in the absence of ongoing exposure following the probe’s termination, Powell’s May 2026 transition from Fed Chair to governor through January 2028, and institutional norms historically shielding central bank officials from politically motivated actions. With the investigation resolved months ago and no new regulatory filings or executive actions reported as of mid-August 2026, forward-looking probabilities remain anchored to verified outcomes rather than speculation, though tail risks could emerge from unforeseen developments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated


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