**Official forecasts from the National Weather Service and supporting models point to an overnight low in the upper 70s for Dallas on August 27, 2026, driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 78–83 °F.** Persistent extreme heat (daytime highs near or above 100 °F) has kept recent overnight minima elevated, but a wind shift to northeast at 5–10 mph and mostly clear skies after earlier shower chances favor radiational cooling under building high pressure. This setup typically allows temperatures to drop into the upper 70s rather than remaining in the low 80s, consistent with NWS guidance of ~78 °F and analogous late-August patterns. Historical averages for the date sit near 76 °F, yet the current anomalous warmth narrows the realistic range. Model spread in boundary-layer moisture, exact cloud timing, and subtle advection explains why 78–79 °F, 80–81 °F, and 82–83 °F outcomes trade so closely—small forecast revisions can shift the minimum by 2–4 °F. Lower odds on 75 °F or below reflect the limited cooling potential from the ongoing heat dome, while higher bins remain discounted absent major pattern changes. Traders are effectively pricing the consensus upper-70s outcome against normal forecast uncertainty in a high-stakes, rapidly resolving weather market.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Dallas on August 27?
Lowest temperature in Dallas on August 27?
78-79°F 48%
80-81°F 46%
82-83°F 46%
75°F or below 45%
NEW
NEW
Aug 27, 2026
75°F or below
45%
76-77°F
15%
78-79°F
48%
80-81°F
46%
82-83°F
46%
84-85°F
2%
86-87°F
15%
88-89°F
15%
90-91°F
14%
92-93°F
9%
94°F or higher
7%
78-79°F 48%
80-81°F 46%
82-83°F 46%
75°F or below 45%
NEW
NEW
Aug 27, 2026
75°F or below
$0 Vol.
45%
76-77°F
$0 Vol.
15%
78-79°F
$0 Vol.
48%
80-81°F
$0 Vol.
46%
82-83°F
$0 Vol.
46%
84-85°F
$0 Vol.
2%
86-87°F
$0 Vol.
15%
88-89°F
$57 Vol.
15%
90-91°F
$22 Vol.
14%
92-93°F
$5 Vol.
9%
94°F or higher
$5 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Official forecasts from the National Weather Service and supporting models point to an overnight low in the upper 70s for Dallas on August 27, 2026, driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 78–83 °F.**
Persistent extreme heat (daytime highs near or above 100 °F) has kept recent overnight minima elevated, but a wind shift to northeast at 5–10 mph and mostly clear skies after earlier shower chances favor radiational cooling under building high pressure. This setup typically allows temperatures to drop into the upper 70s rather than remaining in the low 80s, consistent with NWS guidance of ~78 °F and analogous late-August patterns. Historical averages for the date sit near 76 °F, yet the current anomalous warmth narrows the realistic range.
Model spread in boundary-layer moisture, exact cloud timing, and subtle advection explains why 78–79 °F, 80–81 °F, and 82–83 °F outcomes trade so closely—small forecast revisions can shift the minimum by 2–4 °F. Lower odds on 75 °F or below reflect the limited cooling potential from the ongoing heat dome, while higher bins remain discounted absent major pattern changes. Traders are effectively pricing the consensus upper-70s outcome against normal forecast uncertainty in a high-stakes, rapidly resolving weather market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 25, 2026, 9:29 PM ET
Volume
$89End Date
Aug 27, 2026Market Opened
Aug 25, 2026, 9:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdalResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Official forecasts from the National Weather Service and supporting models point to an overnight low in the upper 70s for Dallas on August 27, 2026, driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 78–83 °F.**
Persistent extreme heat (daytime highs near or above 100 °F) has kept recent overnight minima elevated, but a wind shift to northeast at 5–10 mph and mostly clear skies after earlier shower chances favor radiational cooling under building high pressure. This setup typically allows temperatures to drop into the upper 70s rather than remaining in the low 80s, consistent with NWS guidance of ~78 °F and analogous late-August patterns. Historical averages for the date sit near 76 °F, yet the current anomalous warmth narrows the realistic range.
Model spread in boundary-layer moisture, exact cloud timing, and subtle advection explains why 78–79 °F, 80–81 °F, and 82–83 °F outcomes trade so closely—small forecast revisions can shift the minimum by 2–4 °F. Lower odds on 75 °F or below reflect the limited cooling potential from the ongoing heat dome, while higher bins remain discounted absent major pattern changes. Traders are effectively pricing the consensus upper-70s outcome against normal forecast uncertainty in a high-stakes, rapidly resolving weather market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 27 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$89End Date
Aug 27, 2026Market Opened
Aug 25, 2026, 9:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdalResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Official forecasts from the National Weather Service and supporting models point to an overnight low in the upper 70s for Dallas on August 27, 2026, driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 78–83 °F.** Persistent extreme heat (daytime highs near or above 100 °F) has kept recent overnight minima elevated, but a wind shift to northeast at 5–10 mph and mostly clear skies after earlier shower chances favor radiational cooling under building high pressure. This setup typically allows temperatures to drop into the upper 70s rather than remaining in the low 80s, consistent with NWS guidance of ~78 °F and analogous late-August patterns. Historical averages for the date sit near 76 °F, yet the current anomalous warmth narrows the realistic range. Model spread in boundary-layer moisture, exact cloud timing, and subtle advection explains why 78–79 °F, 80–81 °F, and 82–83 °F outcomes trade so closely—small forecast revisions can shift the minimum by 2–4 °F. Lower odds on 75 °F or below reflect the limited cooling potential from the ongoing heat dome, while higher bins remain discounted absent major pattern changes. Traders are effectively pricing the consensus upper-70s outcome against normal forecast uncertainty in a high-stakes, rapidly resolving weather market.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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