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icon for Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 14?

Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 14?

icon for Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 14?

Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 14?

May 13

May 14

May 15

May 16

May 13

May 14

May 15

May 16

26°C 36.0%

25°C 27%

24°C 22%

27°C or higher 9.3%

Polymarket
NEW

26°C 36.0%

25°C 27%

24°C 22%

27°C or higher 9.3%

Polymarket
NEW

17°C or below

$618 Vol.

<1%

18°C

$403 Vol.

<1%

19°C

$560 Vol.

<1%

20°C

$598 Vol.

<1%

21°C

$1,203 Vol.

<1%

22°C

$588 Vol.

1%

23°C

$785 Vol.

1%

24°C

$281 Vol.

22%

25°C

$132 Vol.

40%

26°C

$1,704 Vol.

25%

27°C or higher

$2,843 Vol.

9%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Hong Kong Observatory's 9-day forecast, updated May 12, projects a 24°C minimum temperature on May 14 amid a trough of low pressure ushering in cloudy skies, heavy showers, and squally thunderstorms with southwesterly winds force 4, fostering high humidity (70-95%) that curbs radiative cooling overnight. This aligns with trader-implied odds clustering tightly at 25°C (30%), 24°C (28%), and 23°C (22.5%), reflecting uncertainty in convective activity's impact—persistent cloud cover could trap heat for a 25°C low, while heavier rain and gusts might enhance surface cooling toward 23°C. Recent May 13 daytime highs near 30°C follow hotter patterns, but the shift to unsettled conditions mirrors climatological May averages around 24°C minima; watch the 11:30 HKT update for refined guidance ahead of resolution.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$9,715
End Date
May 14, 2026
Market Opened
May 11, 2026, 6:18 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Hong Kong Observatory's 9-day forecast, updated May 12, projects a 24°C minimum temperature on May 14 amid a trough of low pressure ushering in cloudy skies, heavy showers, and squally thunderstorms with southwesterly winds force 4, fostering high humidity (70-95%) that curbs radiative cooling overnight. This aligns with trader-implied odds clustering tightly at 25°C (30%), 24°C (28%), and 23°C (22.5%), reflecting uncertainty in convective activity's impact—persistent cloud cover could trap heat for a 25°C low, while heavier rain and gusts might enhance surface cooling toward 23°C. Recent May 13 daytime highs near 30°C follow hotter patterns, but the shift to unsettled conditions mirrors climatological May averages around 24°C minima; watch the 11:30 HKT update for refined guidance ahead of resolution.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm

This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$9,715
End Date
May 14, 2026
Market Opened
May 11, 2026, 6:18 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 14?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "25°C" at 40%, followed by "26°C" at 25%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 40¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 40% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 14?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on May 11, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 14?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 14?" is "25°C" at 40%, meaning the market assigns a 40% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "26°C" at 25%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 14?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.