Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects significant uncertainty in National Weather Service guidance and ensemble forecasts from GFS and ECMWF models for New York City's LaGuardia Airport low temperature on May 14, with the 56-57°F outcome leading at 31% implied probability amid a tight cluster around mid-50s°F. Recent 12Z model runs highlight a weak cold front introducing northwest winds and partly cloudy skies overnight, enabling potential radiational cooling and dew point depressions greater than 10°F in drier boundary layer air, favoring lower outcomes like 54-55°F (26%) or 52-53°F (22%); however, persistent low-level clouds or residual mixing could preserve warmer lows near 56-57°F. Climatological May 14 normal is 54°F, but below-average spring patterns add downside risk. Watch 00Z model updates and NWS evening discussion for refined cloud cover timing and wind shear above 500 mb, as 48-hour predictability improves rapidly.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in NYC on May 14?
Lowest temperature in NYC on May 14?
54-55°F 38%
52-53°F 34%
56-57°F 26%
58-59°F 10.4%
NEW
NEW
May 14, 2026
45°F or below
<1%
46-47°F
<1%
48-49°F
<1%
50-51°F
9%
52-53°F
26%
54-55°F
38%
56-57°F
26%
58-59°F
10%
60-61°F
1%
62-63°F
1%
64°F or higher
<1%
54-55°F 38%
52-53°F 34%
56-57°F 26%
58-59°F 10.4%
NEW
NEW
May 14, 2026
45°F or below
$107 Vol.
<1%
46-47°F
$284 Vol.
<1%
48-49°F
$177 Vol.
<1%
50-51°F
$167 Vol.
9%
52-53°F
$167 Vol.
26%
54-55°F
$188 Vol.
38%
56-57°F
$121 Vol.
26%
58-59°F
$110 Vol.
10%
60-61°F
$114 Vol.
1%
62-63°F
$282 Vol.
1%
64°F or higher
$790 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects significant uncertainty in National Weather Service guidance and ensemble forecasts from GFS and ECMWF models for New York City's LaGuardia Airport low temperature on May 14, with the 56-57°F outcome leading at 31% implied probability amid a tight cluster around mid-50s°F. Recent 12Z model runs highlight a weak cold front introducing northwest winds and partly cloudy skies overnight, enabling potential radiational cooling and dew point depressions greater than 10°F in drier boundary layer air, favoring lower outcomes like 54-55°F (26%) or 52-53°F (22%); however, persistent low-level clouds or residual mixing could preserve warmer lows near 56-57°F. Climatological May 14 normal is 54°F, but below-average spring patterns add downside risk. Watch 00Z model updates and NWS evening discussion for refined cloud cover timing and wind shear above 500 mb, as 48-hour predictability improves rapidly.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 11, 2026, 6:18 PM ET
Volume
$2,416End Date
May 14, 2026Market Opened
May 11, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects significant uncertainty in National Weather Service guidance and ensemble forecasts from GFS and ECMWF models for New York City's LaGuardia Airport low temperature on May 14, with the 56-57°F outcome leading at 31% implied probability amid a tight cluster around mid-50s°F. Recent 12Z model runs highlight a weak cold front introducing northwest winds and partly cloudy skies overnight, enabling potential radiational cooling and dew point depressions greater than 10°F in drier boundary layer air, favoring lower outcomes like 54-55°F (26%) or 52-53°F (22%); however, persistent low-level clouds or residual mixing could preserve warmer lows near 56-57°F. Climatological May 14 normal is 54°F, but below-average spring patterns add downside risk. Watch 00Z model updates and NWS evening discussion for refined cloud cover timing and wind shear above 500 mb, as 48-hour predictability improves rapidly.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$2,416End Date
May 14, 2026Market Opened
May 11, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects significant uncertainty in National Weather Service guidance and ensemble forecasts from GFS and ECMWF models for New York City's LaGuardia Airport low temperature on May 14, with the 56-57°F outcome leading at 31% implied probability amid a tight cluster around mid-50s°F. Recent 12Z model runs highlight a weak cold front introducing northwest winds and partly cloudy skies overnight, enabling potential radiational cooling and dew point depressions greater than 10°F in drier boundary layer air, favoring lower outcomes like 54-55°F (26%) or 52-53°F (22%); however, persistent low-level clouds or residual mixing could preserve warmer lows near 56-57°F. Climatological May 14 normal is 54°F, but below-average spring patterns add downside risk. Watch 00Z model updates and NWS evening discussion for refined cloud cover timing and wind shear above 500 mb, as 48-hour predictability improves rapidly.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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