Japan Meteorological Agency's forecast issued May 13 morning projects a minimum temperature of 17°C in Tokyo on May 14 under cloudy skies with occasional clearing and 10-30% precipitation chances, anchoring trader consensus at 31.5% implied probability for that outcome while keeping 15-18°C tightly clustered amid model ensemble spread. Partial cloud cover limits radiative cooling that could drop temps to 15-16°C on clearer nights, but persistent overcast and light southerly flows—typical mid-May steering patterns—favor trapping ground heat, nudging toward 17-18°C above the 14.3°C climatological normal. Urban heat island effects in Tokyo further buffer lows; watch afternoon model refreshes from JMA and ECMWF for shifts ahead of evening resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Tokyo on May 14?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on May 14?
16°C 38%
15°C 16%
17°C 12%
18°C 11%
NEW
NEW
May 14, 2026
13°C or below
<1%
14°C
3%
15°C
16%
16°C
43%
17°C
12%
18°C
11%
19°C
8%
16°C 38%
15°C 16%
17°C 12%
18°C 11%
NEW
NEW
May 14, 2026
13°C or below
$946 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$277 Vol.
3%
15°C
$146 Vol.
16%
16°C
$156 Vol.
43%
17°C
$214 Vol.
12%
18°C
$335 Vol.
11%
19°C
$834 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Japan Meteorological Agency's forecast issued May 13 morning projects a minimum temperature of 17°C in Tokyo on May 14 under cloudy skies with occasional clearing and 10-30% precipitation chances, anchoring trader consensus at 31.5% implied probability for that outcome while keeping 15-18°C tightly clustered amid model ensemble spread. Partial cloud cover limits radiative cooling that could drop temps to 15-16°C on clearer nights, but persistent overcast and light southerly flows—typical mid-May steering patterns—favor trapping ground heat, nudging toward 17-18°C above the 14.3°C climatological normal. Urban heat island effects in Tokyo further buffer lows; watch afternoon model refreshes from JMA and ECMWF for shifts ahead of evening resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 11, 2026, 6:18 PM ET
Volume
$6,664End Date
May 14, 2026Market Opened
May 11, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Japan Meteorological Agency's forecast issued May 13 morning projects a minimum temperature of 17°C in Tokyo on May 14 under cloudy skies with occasional clearing and 10-30% precipitation chances, anchoring trader consensus at 31.5% implied probability for that outcome while keeping 15-18°C tightly clustered amid model ensemble spread. Partial cloud cover limits radiative cooling that could drop temps to 15-16°C on clearer nights, but persistent overcast and light southerly flows—typical mid-May steering patterns—favor trapping ground heat, nudging toward 17-18°C above the 14.3°C climatological normal. Urban heat island effects in Tokyo further buffer lows; watch afternoon model refreshes from JMA and ECMWF for shifts ahead of evening resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$6,664End Date
May 14, 2026Market Opened
May 11, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Japan Meteorological Agency's forecast issued May 13 morning projects a minimum temperature of 17°C in Tokyo on May 14 under cloudy skies with occasional clearing and 10-30% precipitation chances, anchoring trader consensus at 31.5% implied probability for that outcome while keeping 15-18°C tightly clustered amid model ensemble spread. Partial cloud cover limits radiative cooling that could drop temps to 15-16°C on clearer nights, but persistent overcast and light southerly flows—typical mid-May steering patterns—favor trapping ground heat, nudging toward 17-18°C above the 14.3°C climatological normal. Urban heat island effects in Tokyo further buffer lows; watch afternoon model refreshes from JMA and ECMWF for shifts ahead of evening resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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