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icon for Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by...?

Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by...?

icon for Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by...?

Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by...?

$169,517 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026
Polymarket

$169,517 Vol.

Polymarket

September 30

$4,700 Vol.

1%

December 31

$25,234 Vol.

8%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Giorgia Meloni ceases to be the Prime Minister of Italy for any period of time between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Giorgia Melon's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Italy, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Giorgia Meloni ceases to be the Prime Minister of Italy for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Giorgia Melon's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Italy, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Giorgia Meloni ceases to be the Prime Minister of Italy for any period of time between December 5, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Giorgia Melon's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Italy, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Giorgia Meloni ceases to be the Prime Minister of Italy for any period of time between market creation and July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Giorgia Melon's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Italy, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Meloni’s right-wing coalition has delivered Italy’s longest uninterrupted postwar government, passing 1,400 days in office by early September 2026 and surpassing Silvio Berlusconi’s prior record. She has repeatedly stated her intent to serve until the legislature ends in autumn 2027, citing the stability that has improved Italy’s standing with EU partners and financial markets. Recent polling shows her Brothers of Italy party holding roughly 27 percent support while the broader coalition slips toward 38–40 percent, with votes shifting to the new far-right Futuro Nazionale movement led by Roberto Vannacci. Coalition frictions surfaced in July when an electoral-reform amendment backed by Meloni failed amid defections, and earlier judicial and autonomy initiatives stalled. With the next scheduled vote in 2027, traders weigh the durability of the current majority against gradual erosion from splinter parties and policy setbacks when assessing near-term removal risks.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Giorgia Meloni ceases to be the Prime Minister of Italy for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Giorgia Melon's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be the government of Italy, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Giorgia Meloni ceases to be the Prime Minister of Italy for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Giorgia Melon's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Italy, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Volume
$169,517
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
May 20, 2026, 9:52 PM ET
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Giorgia Meloni ceases to be the Prime Minister of Italy for any period of time between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Giorgia Melon's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Italy, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Giorgia Meloni ceases to be the Prime Minister of Italy for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Giorgia Melon's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Italy, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Giorgia Meloni ceases to be the Prime Minister of Italy for any period of time between December 5, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Giorgia Melon's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Italy, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Giorgia Meloni ceases to be the Prime Minister of Italy for any period of time between market creation and July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Giorgia Melon's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Italy, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Meloni’s right-wing coalition has delivered Italy’s longest uninterrupted postwar government, passing 1,400 days in office by early September 2026 and surpassing Silvio Berlusconi’s prior record. She has repeatedly stated her intent to serve until the legislature ends in autumn 2027, citing the stability that has improved Italy’s standing with EU partners and financial markets. Recent polling shows her Brothers of Italy party holding roughly 27 percent support while the broader coalition slips toward 38–40 percent, with votes shifting to the new far-right Futuro Nazionale movement led by Roberto Vannacci. Coalition frictions surfaced in July when an electoral-reform amendment backed by Meloni failed amid defections, and earlier judicial and autonomy initiatives stalled. With the next scheduled vote in 2027, traders weigh the durability of the current majority against gradual erosion from splinter parties and policy setbacks when assessing near-term removal risks.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Giorgia Meloni ceases to be the Prime Minister of Italy for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Giorgia Melon's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be the government of Italy, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Giorgia Meloni ceases to be the Prime Minister of Italy for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Giorgia Melon's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Italy, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Volume
$169,517
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
May 20, 2026, 9:52 PM ET

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "December 31" at 8%, followed by "September 30" at 1%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 8¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 8% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by...?" has generated $169.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 5, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by...?," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by...?" is "December 31" at just 8%, with "September 30" close behind at 1%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.