Giorgia Meloni’s center-right coalition maintains a solid parliamentary majority and has delivered Italy’s longest period of governmental stability in the postwar era, underpinning trader consensus that she will remain prime minister at least through June 30. After the March 2026 referendum defeat on judicial reform, Meloni publicly recommitted to completing the full mandate and has continued advancing priorities such as energy security, defense spending targets, and expanded African partnerships without facing credible no-confidence challenges or coalition fractures. No scheduled votes, leadership contests, or institutional deadlines in the next six weeks appear positioned to alter this trajectory. While a sudden internal dispute over the next budget or an unexpected diplomatic setback could introduce volatility, current legislative cohesion and Meloni’s institutional positioning make such shifts improbable before the resolution window closes.