Meloni’s right-wing coalition has maintained parliamentary control and delivered unusual longevity for an Italian government, but a March 2026 justice-system referendum defeat—rejected by 54 percent of voters amid higher-than-expected turnout—has introduced the first notable domestic pressure since 2022. The loss, widely viewed as a proxy vote on her leadership, triggered coalition resignations and prompted splinter moves such as Roberto Vannacci’s new party, while recent polling shows Fratelli d’Italia near 28–29 percent and the broader coalition hovering around 47 percent, close to the threshold for a majority. Foreign-policy frictions, including the suspension of a defense pact with Israel, have added friction, though Meloni continues high-level diplomacy and her personal ratings remain competitive ahead of the 2027 general election. Traders weigh these developments against Italy’s history of short-lived executives and the absence of immediate no-confidence triggers or snap-election momentum.