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Politics·Primaries

MN-05 Republican Primary Winner

icon for MN-05 Republican Primary Winner
Politics·Primaries

MN-05 Republican Primary Winner

John Nagel 100.0%

Dalia Al-Aqidi <1%

Angie Windhauser <1%

Abbey Zieska <1%

Polymarket

$126,073 Vol.

John Nagel 100.0%

Dalia Al-Aqidi <1%

Angie Windhauser <1%

Abbey Zieska <1%

Polymarket

$126,073 Vol.

Dalia Al-Aqidi

$57,447 Vol.

No

John Nagel

$49,666 Vol.

Yes

Angie Windhauser

$9,084 Vol.

No

Abbey Zieska

$9,875 Vol.

No

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the MN-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 11, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.John Nagel's commanding position in the MN-05 Republican primary reflects his decisive win in the August 11 contest, where early results showed him securing a majority of votes over Dalia Al-Aqidi, Angie Windhauser, and Abbey Zieska. Traders have priced in this outcome based on his established profile as a retired Minnesota State Patrol officer with decades of law enforcement experience, local residency, and emphasis on public safety and economic issues in campaign messaging. The low probabilities assigned to other candidates align with vote shares and limited late momentum for challengers. While the primary outcome appears settled, any delays in final certification or unforeseen disputes could still introduce minor adjustments before market resolution.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the MN-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 11, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the MN-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 11, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$126,073
End Date
Aug 11, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 2:36 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the MN-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 11, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.John Nagel's commanding position in the MN-05 Republican primary reflects his decisive win in the August 11 contest, where early results showed him securing a majority of votes over Dalia Al-Aqidi, Angie Windhauser, and Abbey Zieska. Traders have priced in this outcome based on his established profile as a retired Minnesota State Patrol officer with decades of law enforcement experience, local residency, and emphasis on public safety and economic issues in campaign messaging. The low probabilities assigned to other candidates align with vote shares and limited late momentum for challengers. While the primary outcome appears settled, any delays in final certification or unforeseen disputes could still introduce minor adjustments before market resolution.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the MN-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 11, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the MN-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 11, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$126,073
End Date
Aug 11, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 2:36 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

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Frequently Asked Questions

"MN-05 Republican Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "John Nagel" at 100%, followed by "Dalia Al-Aqidi" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "MN-05 Republican Primary Winner" has generated $126.1K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 23, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "MN-05 Republican Primary Winner," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "MN-05 Republican Primary Winner" is "John Nagel" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Dalia Al-Aqidi" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "MN-05 Republican Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.